New Web Site

www.slipperytoad.co.uk

Warts and All - Betfair Bootcamp (24th April 2008)

Attended Betfair’s free training seminar last night and even though my head is still spinning I shall confess to a new love affair.

The objective of the training event is to educate punters in the use of the Betfair web site and to introduce various, methods tricks, trips and betting strategies when using their tools. The course was run by Scott Ferguson head of education at Betfair.

Given Betfair’s unique business model, for the first time in history, punters have an ally who is generally interested in educating and providing punters with tools to bet with the market opinion (back) or against market opinion (lay). For them, money is made either way via their commission charges so basically they don’t care if punters win unlike our friends the turf accountants.

When you read my comments below you soon realise why there has been an explosion in the availability of tools/software/ trading platforms for the punter and why in years to come the notion of bookmakers will be consigned to the pages of history and tails of old.

The course is designed to be five hours in length but is condensed into three hours which is a slight negative. However during this period, I received free instruction (tried various trading strategies live during the Manchester United verses Barcelona champions league game), free use of a betfair account (£50) for trading, free food, free bar and free handouts which included a brand new copy of “Betfair for Dummies” (RRP £12).

In summary I am now in love with Betfair and everything Betfair related.

Having attended various work related training events, I would estimate the overall cost of the training I received yesterday at around £200; all for free which is excellent value in my opinion.

Here are the other points of note from my night of punting lust.

. Back high, lay low

. Spend time to identify the trend then go with It. This is a simple concept but “crucial” if you want to become successful when trading

. Humans can take advantage of automated betting bots.

. The concept of trading windows, especially in sports such as cricket, football, rugby etc

. Identify “what could” or “what is” happen(ing) in the period of your trading window.

. Laying the field in contentious races to ensure a potential profit in-running (I shall definitely try this technique at Lingfield after my recent visit to the course)

. When trading in-running expect someone else to have faster pictures/information than you

. When trading, ask for a lower/higher price. If the trend goes in the direction you predict you are more likely to get matched in the market.

. Keyboard mistake’s can be costly. The stories and tales of financial ruin due to an incorrect key press sent shivers down my spine.

. Betfair provide free form guides via their commercial partnership with Timeform.

. Timeform Perspective comments are available free on Betfair form pages for each horse’s recent race

. When trading, don’t trust the on course race callers.

. The betfair form tissues are 100% and created by Timeform’s own odd’s compliers. Very useful for someone like me who is trying to create their own betting forecast.

. How to play low liquidity markets

. Betfair has some great tools that are not publicised on their main site.

. Once a horse race has started the market in driven by “opinion”

. In sports events, once the game as started the market is driven by the score and time.

. There are literally hundreds of ways to make money on Betfair. The trick is to identify a winning method.

. Managed risk, high turnover, small profits aligned with patience is a sure fire way to win long term.

The biggest “on my gawd” moment of the night was that for the VERY best punters using Betfair, the measure of success is attaining and maintaining (if you wish to be a professional) a 4% profit on turnover! Betfair have access to the best and worst records/ betting/trading patterns from all their subscribers so I guess this statement is based on facts/stats.

The advice from Scott (who was a professional punter and I have not reason to doubt him) is to become a long term winner you need discipline and excellent money management. Yep I am aware of this fact but like the advice from a doctor verses a nagging girlfriend, you tend to take heed of the former.

Given that the majority of humans do neither disciple or money management very well Betfair (and their competitors) have recognised that the long term growth potential for their business model is educating the punter and like Google, ensure they corner the market. Once they achieve dominance (which they have) they can cream their 2-5% off the “churn” and let they punters do the rest.

Now why did I not think of this concept first!

The whole of science is nothing more than a refinement of everyday thinking. Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)

This will be my last posting on this version of the web site. I have finished the design of the new site and have solved the problem of replacing Superform. My aim is to re-launch slipperytoad on the 1st May.

Warts and All - What Next? (22nd April 2008)

Image you are a car mechanic. After a number of years, you turn up for work and find that you tools have been removed and you’re told that you need to rebuild your tools from scratch using a different set and from a different manufacturer.

The equivalent has happen to me.

A few days ago I received a letter from Superform who provide an excellent professional electronic formbook service. After 31 years in business they have decided to terminate their service from early May.

For £11/month their handicappers produced ratings for every UK horse race (flat/national hunt) and their service was reliable, fast, easy and more importantly cheap.

Using their data enabled me to determine which horses were “well in” at the weights and review the recent and previous form of each horse to determine likes and dislikes easily in the context of the race. An excellant, well run and professional service!

This for me is an absolute disaster as I have been using their service for the last four years to evolve my handicapping methods and historical database for exampe, pace bias for each of the all weather tracks.

My overall losses so far were in no way due to their service, it was my interpretation of the data that was at fault, however now Superform has ceased their ratings service I am left wondering what are my next steps?

The alternative solutions to Superform (Timeform, Raceform etc) in my view are inferior and more importantly expensive. Whatever the choice, I would need to go through a lengthy period of evaluation to understand the nuances of their data and at £40+ per month I may not be able to justify the added expense at this stage of my developement.

So what now for Slipperytoad?

Well after much consideration, deliberation and soul searching I have taken the demise of Superform as an opportunity to start again, because frankly I have no other choice bar giving up.

First on the rebirth list is to revamp the website. It has served me well for the last four years but frankly needs a good lick of paint and I need to move away from the Blogger platform software as it is becoming restrictive.

If you are reading these comments and have suggestions for the new web site, I would welcome any comments and criticisms.

In terms of handicapping, investing methods and process, I have one of two ideas.

As fate would have it I am attending one of Betfair’s free education events this Wednesday. They apparently provide everything including a light buffet, free bar and funded demo accounts for me to practice trading. It will give me a chance to mix with the other mugs.

From the end spring new beginnings.
Pliny the Elder
Roman scholar & scientist (23 AD - 79 AD)