Doncaster - 2:55 (6 Nov 2004)
Enter The £1 Million totetentofollow November Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (B1) 1m4f
Course Description
A left handed flat galloping track, ideal for the big, long striding horse, and the powerful galloper. On the round course, the track turns to the left in a most accommodating, gently sweeping fashion. Therefore, low numbers have some advantage in races staged from 8 to 12 furlong.
Analysis
Could not resist a punt on the last big flat handicap of the season. I understand that by doing this I am going against my normal rules of not betting in races greater that 16. However there is a slight advantage in my favour given the going conditions at Doncaster are soft, over 1m4f there is a low draw bias and in the November handicaps at Doncaster late improving three-year-olds often win this race. Given the information above, its a process of elimination.
Shortlist
(Draw)
(1) Bendarsham: 4yo, 3rd last time out at Doncaster (drawn 3), behind Tempsford
(2) Another Choice: 3yo, untried over distance, but goes well on soft ground
(3) Carte Diamond: 3yo, based on last run top rated of horses drawn low, distance winner, no problems with ground, top of speed ratings
(4) Jeepstar: 4yo, front runner, goes over distance and ground and according to form analysis definitely odds on for one of the place positions
(5) Bessemer: 3yo, untried over distance and ground conditions
(6) Distant Prospect: 7yo: preference is for longer distances.
(7) Cruise Director: 4yo, course and distance runs, no going concerns. 5th behind Bendarsham and Tempsford last time out at Doncaster
Again, I shall increase my normal stake and back Bendarsham and Carte Diamond to win (£2) and have a place saver on Jeepstar(£2). Other horses worthy of mention are Always Waining and Artistic Style. Both horses relish ground conditions and come into the race on form however both have poor draws to overcome.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/06/2004 11:47:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Carte Diamond - 1st @ 12/1
Bendarshaan - 3rd @ 20/1
Jeepstar - 4th @ 28/1
Racing Post Analysis
A useful renewal of this valuable traditional finale, which lacked nothing in quantity, even though the quality fell slightly short; the top horse being rated 95, which was 15lb below the allowed ceiling for this Heritage handicap. CARTE DIAMOND(1), who changed hands for 105,000gns out of Mark Johnston's stable at the recent Newmarket Sales, was having only the fifth race of his career. His relative inexperience did not count against him, though, as he raced into the lead full of running and came away to win with something to spare. He was purchased largely as a jumping prospect and he could prove useful in that sphere.
Distant Prospect, a proven stayer over longer distances, came from a long way back to finish a clear second.
Bendarshaan, never too far away, ran a creditable race in third, while long-time leader Jeepstar also ran a fine race considering how keenly he raced through the early stages.
Post a Comment
<< Home