Newcastle - 3:15 (25 June 2005)

John Smith's Northumberland Plate Heritage Handicap (2) 2m19y

Course Description
A broad left-handed, pear-shaped oval. A testing track that makes considerable demands on a horses stamina and resolution especially on soft ground.

Effect of the draw at 2m
Runners in the Northumberland plate race entirely on the round course. Given the sweeping nature of the turns, the draw is a major factor. 60% of recent winners have come from a single figure draw position as high-drawn horses have had to either race wide or drop in and lose ground early. Contestants require good early pace to obtain a prominent position.

Analysis
Selection: Swift Sailor (1pt win), Balyan (1pt win).

The key trends that have decided the outcome of this race are

Low draw
Proven ability over 2miles
Prominent racers
Younger horses
Top 6 in the betting forecast

Short-listed are

Swift Sailor: Well drawn in stall 2. And along with Gold Ring, likes to race prominently and a slight concern given there is little pace in the race. Has competed well in the both the top staying handicaps (Chester Cup and Ascot Stakes), drops back in trip, is young and improving so has the ability to go one better today.

Gold Ring: Another young stayer that likes to race prominently. Well drawn, he is proven over the distance (Maiden Hurdle win) but may be a little outclassed. A large proportion of recent Northumberland Plate winners have been priced at 12/1 and under so at current odds he is not one to be getting heavily involved in. He is however top rated on speed ratings so I am hoping that he will act as the pace maker for my main selection Swift Sailor.

Lochbuie: Drawn 8. Comes into consideration after a good run (2nd) in a group 2 event at Sandown over this distance. Dropped in class today his current odds make him an attractive proposition. Unfortunately, the stats don’t look too good for runners weighted over 9st.

Balyan: Comes into consideration due to advantageous draw position and recent run in the Chester Cup after a long absence. Did not stay that day but drops back in trip today. Lightly raced 4yo the trainer has targeted this race all season so improvement expected today. Another who is attractive at the odds.

Given the strong draw bias I shall also invest in a small v.small Exacta/Trifeca: Swift Sailor will be my banker. The others will be Far Pavillions (historically 60% favourites make the frame) Gold Ring, Lochbuie and Balyan