Wolverhampton - 4:40 (10 June 2005)

5f 20yds - Arena Leisure PLC Handicap (Class 5) 3yo

Course Description
Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. Over shorter distances there seems to be a bias for low drawn horses. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to stay the distance off a string pace

Draw Bias over 5f
The percentage call here is stalls 1 & 2

Analysis
Selection: Majestical (1pt win), Selkirk Storm (½ point each-way)

This race will put my theory to the test. The theory based on statistics is that over 5f at Wolverhampton you should back stalls 1 and 2 blindly. But what say the form and ratings for today’s contestants?

(Stall 1) Majestical - A definite contender given that he has shown good form on the All-Weather surface and is a course and distance winner. Has already beaten market leader (Ashes) at Lingfield and has the pace profile and speed ratings to be there or there about at the death.

(Stall 2) Selkirk Storm - Not a hope in hell according to the market (28’s on betfair) however he is berthed in the plum draw. A winner of his maiden fist time out (and no wins since), he is unexposed on all weather surfaces. No other clues based on Trainer and Jockey form so much to base a decision on but worth an each-way shot given the draw bias.

(Stall 3) Ashes: Course and distance winner and a win last time out in convincing style. Noted as one that can defy a penalty, excellent pace and speed figures this is a worthy favourite. If I have to pick holes in his form; the recent win was on soft ground by 5 lengths. What did Mel Cullinan say in his Racing Post Feature “30 ways to make it pay”

"Be wary of wide-margin winners. Most punters simply love easy, wide-margin winners, but for the discerning there is often money to be made by opposing them. A horse's chance should be assessed in the light of their overall career record, not one flashy success, to which the market often overreacts".

Again I might be looking for negatives (and this horse has more positives that negatives), but as favourites have a 26% strike rate in this event, I am obliged to look elsewhere for value.

(Stall 4) Goldhill Prince – A recent winner in a classified event and this one fact eliminates him from selection (As a rule form from classified events cannot be relied upon in handicaps)