The Epsom Derby Meeting ( 3/4 June 2005)
Epsom Course Description
A left handed track with pronounced undulations and a fairly short run in of three and a half furlongs. It is all against the tall, long striding horse. Front runners have a good record here. Very much a course for specialists.
The Epsom Derby meeting! Over hyped, over analysed but given that this is a principle meeting my plans dictate that I should analyse the key races and create a historical reference in preparation for future Anti-post bets.
The Coronation Cup
Statistics indicate that favourites should be avoided. This unfortunately eliminates Alkaased who won the Newmarket Jockey Club Stakes race at the Guinness meeting; a key pointer to the winner of the Coronation Cup. At 5/2 however, Alkaased he is far too short for a punt but if he wins this race, I’ll “get on” the winner of the Jockey Club race earlier next year Anti-Post
The other key statistic is the winner was placed last time out in group company and coupled with the stat that indicates that the winner should emanate from the first four in the betting only Reefscape and Yeats remain.
Reefscape hails from stable that produced Coronation Cup winners with great regularity and the form book indicates that he should improve given that he ran over an inadequate distance when coming third to Bago in a recent French Group1 event.
The selection of Yeats is purely based on the form of the Aidan O'Brien stable and the value on offer.
I have not selected Papineau because I am not convinced that the Godolphin horses have not reached the form required to be competitive in group company/races.
The Oaks
There are number of reasons to back Virginia Waters. Firstly she hacked up in a key trial for this race (The 1000 Guineas) Secondly she was supplemented for this race to the tune of £20000. The Ballydoyle boys are no mugs and would not have taken this course of action if they felt that Miss Waters would not perform. Thirdly, fast ground is what is needed for Virginia Waters and if the rains keep away, then she’ll get conditions to suit.
The Derby
Everyone has an opinion on who will win the Derby be it based on form, stats, trials, dosage index, breeding, belief, hopes, dreams, hype etc. I’ve decided to adopt the historical statistics and dosage index methods as both have solid records in selecting the winner of this race
FirstlyDosage. The method is described at the following web link http://www.chef-de-race.com/main_menu.htm and points to Gypsy King as been the likely winner of the race.
If you also apply other historical statistics Gypsy King is thrown up as the likely winner along with Fracas. A winner of 2 Derby trials he has done nothing wrong and at 12/1 anti-post was far too big a price to let go.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 6/02/2005 06:16:00 pm
3 comments
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3 Comments:
Vodafone Coronation Cup
Get In!
1st and 3rd, not a bad result
Racing Post Comments
The absence of Gold Cup winner Papineau with a bruised foot deprived this race of a fascinating aspect, and while the field was still well up to par numerically, it was not a particularly strong renewal in terms of quality. Unfortunately they dawdled through the early stages, and with the exception of Richard Hills on Bandari, the entire field were guilty of giving Kieren Fallon far too much rope on the unexposed YEATS. The four-year-old, who had been vying for Derby favouritism last spring until ruled out by muscle problems, was a first Irish-trained winner of this race since Roberto in 1973. He may well turn out to have been a worthy winner, too, but there is no question they played into his hands here by allowing him such an easy time of it in front. The writing was on the wall from an early stage, and when Fallon kicked on as they straightened for home it was effectively all over. Alkaased was the only one to get anywhere near Yeats, who came home clear. While flattered by the result, this was astep up on his Curragh reappearance, and he is entitled to improve again, as this was only the fifth start of his career. Another plus for connections is that he confirmed here that he is fully effective on fast ground. Although his entries cover the full range of distances from the Prince of Wales's to the Gold Cup, the King George looks the obvious target now.
Alkaased did remarkably well to finish so far clear of the rest in second, having been held up in last place and given much too much to do. Indeed there is a strong suspicion he was the best horse in the race. Although he was irritable while being saddled, he did nothing wrong afterwards and showed further improvement on his reappearance win in the Jockey Club Stakes, quickening well from a poor position to go in pursuit of the winner in the last two furlongs and chasing him hard, though only momentarily looking as if he might possibly get on terms with him. He loves this fast ground and is well worth another chance in this grade.
Reefscape was essentially a stayer in France last year, and he got outpaced as they straightened for home and dropped back to last. He stayed on well in the closing stages and collared Warrsan for third near the finish. He needed a stronger pace at this trip.
Warrsan, bidding for an unprecedented third successive win in the race, was also unsuited by the steady early gallop, and started to struggle early in the straight. This can be forgiven, and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back.
Bandari got a little bit warm, but was not as bad as he can be. He pressed Yeats into the straight, but then found him quickening away. This may not be his ideal track, and he just struggles a bit at Group 1 level in any case.
Pride had bits of decent Group 1 form in France but was never a threat here.
Alkaadhem looked a non stayer again in the first-time cheekpieces. His rider reported that he lost his action approaching the final furlong, but he was already well beaten.
Vodafone Oaks
No excuses, with the exception that I was slightly swayed by press comments on Miss Waters.
Next year I will get on my selection eariler Anti-Post before the hype and speculation starts. That way I can ignore it.
Racing Post Comments
A strong enough renewal on paper but with plenty of the Group-race performers either not staying or not handling the track, the bare result is riddled with Listed form to suggest this is not one of the vintage Oaks but that could be levelled at other recent renewals and the winners have gone on to more Group 1 glory.
The certainty is that both ESWARAH and Something Exciting, who pulled clear in their duel through the final two furlongs, are most progressive fillies who can continue this trend. The race was run at a muddling pace to explain a modest time as after a strong start, there was a noticeable lull through the middle four furlongs.
Eswarah went into the race the most unexposed having been unraced at two and relatively untested in winning her two starts this year. It showed as they went a strong pace from the stalls and she was niggled along to hold a midfield pitch but she was travelling well by the top of the hill and showed an impressive turn of foot to have all bar Something Exciting gasping into the final two furlongs.
That she found more when that rival threatened marks her down as an exceptional prospect. Her dam Midway Lady was also an exceptional Oaks winner after landing the 1,000 Guineas. She too swished her tail when feeling the whip and Eswarah showed the same trait but also galloped strongly to the line
Midway Lady's problems were her legs but Eswarah is not built in her image but is also not the most robust looking and it would be no surprise if she has a good break after this before an autumn campaign.
Something Exciting has done plenty of racing but had looked progressive and made a big impression with her Lupe win when stepping up from a mile to ten furlongs. This extra distance saw her progress again and without the winner would be proclaimed a rising star. She was settled second-last and was knocked back over a mile out in a concertina effect but ravelled strongly into the straight where she was pulled widest out to come with a sustained run that tookher to the quarters of the winner but no further.
Pictavia was another knocked back in the scrimmaging over a mile out but more importantly she was uneasy downhill and outpaced as the principals quickened up. She kept on strongly, although that was made to look more visually impressive with Virginia Waters legless into the final furlong.
Pictavia still has a progressive profile and connections pointed to the Irish Oaks where the flatter track will suit better but she looks a filly who is susceptible to a rival with more toe than her.
Virginia Waters would have been a good third at ten furlongs but folded badly in the final furlong and the Guineas winner will surely drop back in trip after this experiment.
Silk and Scarlet was allowed to drop fully four lengths off the back of the pack uphill and was still last into the straight, ostensibly looking to have her untested stamina conserved. She pushed Joint Aspiration out of her way as she angled out to the midtrack and stayed on steadily without landing a blow. With her raking stride not suited to the contours she makes plenty of appeal as a likely Irish Oaks contender on this effort.
Magical Romance another taking a massive step up in trip, was ridden in complete contrastsetting the tempo before failing to stay. The Cheveley Park winner looked on good terms with herself and remains interesting when dropping back in trip.
Cassydora never looked happy on the ground and never threatened to take a hand despite turninginto the straight handily enough placed on the outside.
Dream To Dress looked another non-stayer, running well up to a point and she was then hampered against the inside rail and dropped away to be beaten further than her run deserved. She should be rated a shade better than the bare form and remains interesting when returned to a mile or ten furlongs.
Mona Lisa and the supplemented Fen Shui, who raced with the pace, failed to run their races being beaten fully three furlongs out.
Higher Love was reported to have finished distressed.
Vodafone Derby Stakes
The racing post comments are insightfull and should be factored into next years selection. The other factor was that the Dante winner once again won the Oaks. So next year i shall back blindly the front two in next years Dante meeting Anti-post 'prior' to the race.
Racing Post Comments
As in 2004, the field was at the lower end of the scale numerically by recent standards, but there were scarcely any significant absentees and fewer no-hopers than usual. Besides the winners of the seven recognised trials, Fracas (two), Hattan, Gypsy King, Motivator, Kong and Unfurled, one of whom had also won a Group 1 at two, the field included two more Group 1-winning juveniles in Oratorio and Dubawi, the latter's addition to the line-up following his impressive redemption in the Irish 2,000 Guineas adding a fascinating twist to the conundrum.
The ground was less of an issue than it had threatened to be - showers on Friday evening having continued the excellent work done by the groundstaff - and while most of the key players had some, if not all, of the usual questions to answer with regard to stamina, temperament and adaptability, that is precisely what makes the Derby the race it is.
While MOTIVATOR was one of only three unbeaten colts in the race and had impressed in what is traditionallythe strongest of the domestic trials, there was a big worry over his ability to handle the preliminaries, as he is somewhat highly strung, and there was also a suspicion he had too much speed to stay the mile and a half as well as some. However, he conducted himself really well, saddled well away from the parade ring area. Although he was closer to the pace than was generally expected in the early stages when the gallop was only steady, pacemaker Almighty having missed the break and taken nearly 3f to get to the front, he settled well and was always cruising. In second place behind Hattan fully 4f out, it was clear that he would have the overall lead plenty soon enough, but when he hit the front with more than two furlongs to go it was soon all over. Heaccelerated so impressively when given a crack that he was seven or eight lengths clear going to the furlong-marker. With Walk In The Park staying on strongly past Dubawi into second the margin was reduced to five lengths by the finish, but that was still the widest winning margin since Generous in 1991. The Irish Derby, the King George and the Arc are the obvious targets for Motivator, and it is hard to see what is going to beat him in whichever races Michael Bell chooses for him. However, some will wonder now how he might have fared if he had been given his chance in the 2,000 Guineas, and on this evidence one has to think he might well have won, for he is plainly an exceptional colt, and one blessed with speed as well as stamina.
Walk In The Park is also highly strung, and he too was saddled away from the rest and brought into the parade ring as late as possible. The occasion appeared to get to him more than Motivator, for he got on his toes and sweated up. However, he ran the race of his life in second, as many expected him to, appreciating the opportunity to come off a solid pace for once and finishing well when switched to the outside for his effort, having turned for home on the inside towards the rear of the pack. If Motivator missed the Irish Derby, he would be the one to beat, and a major prize ought to come his way before the end of the season.
Dubawi had shown so much speed when winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas that there had to be a doubt about him getting the trip here. He didn't stay, as things turned out, but he would not have beaten Motivator at a mile and a quarter, and he might not even have beaten him at a mile. He ran a big race nevertheless, moving into second inside the two-furlong marker before being outstayed by WalkIn The Park inside the last furlong. Connections are keen to drop him back to ten furlongs now, and the Coral Eclipse, which they won last year with Refuse To Bend, is the obvious short-term target.
Fracas, who did not see a racecourse until April, was unbeaten in three races and was following the Derrinstown route favoured by recent Irish-trained winners of this race, although he had only scrambled home and needed to improve significantly on that bare form. He was inan unpromising position straightening for home, his rider reporting that he was not handling the track, but he appreciated the longer distance and stayed on well under pressure up the outside into fourth. He will have each-way claims at least if running in the Irish Derby.
Gypsy King, the third unbeaten runner in the race but the least experienced of them, had learned a great deal from his Chester experience and was soon much better placed than many anticipated, seemingly travelling well. He went third turning in, but he was left behind when Motivator quickened clear, Kieren Fallon reporting afterwards that he didn't feel right and expected a problem to emerge in the morning. He was beaten more than ten lengths into fifth, and while something might have been amiss, he didn't look good enough on the day.
The Chester Vase winner Hattan, a late starter like Fracas, was committed a long way out and was easily brushed aside by Motivator. He might have been placed if ridden more conservatively, and Clive Brittain insists he has a lot more to offer, as he is immature. There is no specific plan, but Brittain said he would not run in the Irish Derby, while the same owner has Bahar Shumaal for the King Edward VII Stakes.
Unfurled failed to improve the modern record of Predominate Stakes winners but ran as well as he was entitled to in terms of his finishing position, in mid-division on the outside most of the way and plugging on under strong pressure for a solid seventh.
The Geezer, whochased Motivator home at York, hardly went a yard this time. He did not go to post at all well, and he was soon being shoved along at the back of the field. Then, when making some headway in the straight, he ran up the back of Almighty just over two out.Richard Quinn reported he did not handle the track, and that is how it looked, but on this evidence he might be a St Leger horse.
Grand Central was never going well and was under the whip a long way out, and while stable-mate Oratorio lasted longer, he was also under pressure before the straight and was another who did not live up to expectations.
Kings Quay was out of his depth and was inclined to hang into the rail, looking ill at ease on the course.
Almighty, unsurprisingly, dropped right out in the straight, having had to work hard early on to get to the front.
Kong enjoyed the run of the race when beating Walk In The Park at Lingfield, but he ought to have run a great deal better than he did. He did not seem to handlethe race at all, and finished detached from the rest in last.
Richard Quinn reported that The Geezer failed to handle the track.
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