Chester - 7 June 2005

Course Description
An extremely sharp, left handed course, only 1 mile round: this is a front runner's track where all the racing is done on the turn. The track does not give large galloping types a chance to get into their long strides. Indeed such animals often become unbalanced or run wide round Chester’s sharp left handed bends. Therefore this is a course for specialists

Analysis
Back at my favourite track and with 7 handicaps on the card there is plenty of form, stats and facts to get stuck into.

To be successful at Chester we should focus on low drawn horses that like a sharp turning track, can break quickly from the stalls (especially in sprints) and horses that like to run up with the pace or front run and ridden by a jockey who can get their mounts to the fore.

7.15 Imagine Finance Handicap Stakes (3) 7f2y
Again, the stats indicate that we should be looking at horses drawn 1-7, with particular attention given to stalls 1-4. Nashaab, Little Good Bay, Serieux are short listed. As market favourite, Little Good Bay is interesting. Highly rated and one that likes the tight turns of Chester, the stable and Jockey are in cracking form. Unfortunately, this colt is a hold up performer and with very little pace in the race is likely to find trouble in running. Serieux is well handicapped on old form but his recent win in a classified event does not inspire confidence but is worth a chance given the odds and on paper he has the pace to make all. Nashaab is the rock solid choice in stall 1. 2lbs above a winning mark he is another that likes Chester.

8.15 Corbett Bookmakers Handicap Stakes (4) 5f16y
Stalls 1-4 are the ones to concentrate on here. Well drawn Plateau is the selection given that he is top rated and the positive favourite stats (46% strike rate). The other selection is the dark horse Foley Millennium. Apart from this horse, the only pace in the race is drawn in the coffin stalls 13 and 14. Noted as a pacesetter who acts on any track he is effectively taking a drop is class so a bold show is expected today from stall 1. His trainer has only entered three horses at the meeting, two of which are entered in the first race on the card. I also expect Otis B Driftwood to make all from stall 1 in the 6:45 race and I am seriously considering coupling Otis with Foley for a trainer double on the card.

Treasure Cay is also well handicapped and is a danger to the selections.

8.45 Heathcotes Handicap Stakes (4) 1m2f75y
An open event. Stalls 1-9 are the ones to concentrate on here with Castleshane (drawn 1) the outstanding bet of the night. The key to this race is pace and there is little. Castleshane who likes to dominate his races will be able to do so (uncontested) from stall 1. Punters will be put off this horse by the 372 day absence from the flat however, he is race fit from national hunt racing and when you delve deep into the form book you will find that he has won twice at Chester (made all) when able to dominate from a low draw. The bonus is that he has condition to suit again today!

However per my modus operandi in handicaps my other selection is between Oldenway and Trouble Mountain. Oldenway is a course and distance winner, he ran well in his last race, drops back to his preferred trip and under the expert hands of Jockey Paul Hanagan a positive ride will be assured when slipstreaming the pace horse Castleshane. If the money is down i.e. the prices drop then he will get the nod over Trouble Mountain who is well rated but is stepping up in class