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Saturday, August 06, 2005

Ayr - 7:00 (6 Aug 2005)

6f - DM Hall Handicap (Class 5) 3yo+

Course Description
Above all the course is admirably suited to strong galloping types since its long run-in of around 4 furlongs gives a jockey sufficient in which to make his or her run or the opportunity to ride a finely-judged waiting race.

Effect of the Draw over 6f
On good or better going, in races of 8 - 18 runners, the Top 7 stalls won 17 of 18 races 94%

Analysis
I vowed to not to meddle in these low grade affairs, but this race is featured in a very useful web site I found recently (
http://www.startingstalls.co.uk/) which indicates a bias for high drawn horses.

Synopsis (draw numbers is brackets)

Seafield Towers (10) – front runner, better over 5 furlong
Pay Damour (9) – Better in claimers and selling races. 2lbs out of the handicap.
Marshallspark (8) – On winning mark and dropped in class. Trainer and jockey in form. Won this race off the same handicap mark last year.
Thornton Piccolo (7) – unexposed 3yo maiden
Vigorous (6) – Better over 5 furlongs
Lawmaker (5) – Front runner, best form over 5furlongs on polytrack
New Options (4) – Better over 5 furlongs

With two front runners, drawn high a decent gallop will be assured.

Unfortunately with Paul Hanagan being injured, the stable apprentice takes the ride of Marshallspark and if he can ensure a prominent ride, then the 14/1 (Total Bet) on offer looks like good value to me (1pt win).

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