Haydock 4:10 (4 Aug 2005)

1m 3f - NSPCC THS Charity Day Handicap (Class 4) 3yo+

Course Description
The 13-furlong circuit is oval and virtually flat. Haydock’s left handed bends are fairly easy to negotiate and its many extensive straight sections allows long striding, galloping types to come into their own. Stamina is important

Effect of the Draw over 1m 3f.
Indeterminate, but preference for horses drawn low

Analysis
A mixed bag of maiden 3yo’s and horses stepping up in class. The stats show that favourites give a good return on investment. The overnight market leader Takafu is the least exposed in the field and therefore open to improvement. However, he is a 3yo maiden winner who is running first time in a handicap. The success rate of these types is poor so I will look elsewhere.

Short-listed therefore are Estepona, Merrymaker and Smart John.

I was present at Nottingham when Estepona won his first race and he has done nothing but improve since. He steps up in distance today but is creeping up the handicap and has a string of silver medals which is a concern

Merrymaker has potential but has shown his best form on the polytrack all weather surface and requires a strong pace to be at his best. Smart John loves racing at Haydock and is on a winning handicap mark but steps up in class. He has a preference for soft going and as downpours are predicted today, Smart John is the selection (1pt win).