Epsom - 3rd June 2006

4:20 1m 4f - Vodafone Derby Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) 3yo

Short Listed
Visindar, Dylan Thomas, Linda´s Lad, Septimus, Papal Bull, Championship Point, Hala Bek Atlantic Waves

Selection: Linda’s Lad (each-way), Papal Bull

Tricast/Trifecta.
[Bankers] Septimus (based on Dante historical trends), Papal Bull, [Others] Linda’s Lad, Visindar, Horatio Nelson

The shortlist has been created based on the statistic that no Derby winner in the 10 years (and beyond) has been beaten prior to this race.

The no selection of Horatio Nelson is a dangerous move as he could be a real danger if progressing from his first run this season in the Guineas, as so many of O’Brien’s horse have. But when the Magic Sign (Ladbrokes) are best price about horse that the punters will latch onto (the O’Brien/ Fallon factor) this has to be an indication that he is not a contender.

Eliminate the others based on breeding for the Derby Trip and the positive/negative trends from the various Derby trials, what remains are what I consider to be value selections.

Linda’s Lad: Recent performance was probably better than the bare form suggests

Papal Bull: Sir Michael does not tilt at windmills. For a top stable his Derby runners have been rarer that rocking horse shit. I’ve taken the fact that they have supplemented the horse as an indication the Bull could be the real deal.

The ‘small’ tricast (18 bets @ 50p) is to capitalise on a positive result if the short listed horses make the frame.

5:40 6f - Vodafone Sprint Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) 4yo+

Shortlist
Machinist, Idle Power, Indian Trail, Funfair Wane, Bahamian Pirate, Just James, Mine Behind

Selection: Idle Power, Indian Trail, Mine Behind

Given that the draw is not a consideration of this distance, its Dandy Nicholls all the way given his record in this race (5 wins in 7 years).

Although most of his runners have question to answer:

. Machinist: Beaten in lower grade last time out therefore requires significant improvement

. Funfair Wane: On winning handicap mark, but now a 7yo and on long losing run

. Bahamian Pirate: now an 11 year-old, say no more

. Just James: Suited to 7 furlongs and beyond.

The exception is Indian Trial who returns to his preferred trip and is the mount of Mr Fallon. This trainer/jockey combination has won a bundle over the years

At the prices the savers are

Idle Power: a front runner who goes well at Goodwood and certain to handle the undulations of Epsom. Good run last time out .

Mine Behind: Fine reappearance from poor high draw at Chester last time out. Ridden my Alan Munro the most under rating jockey in racing.