The Betfred Gold Cup - Sandown (29th April 2006)
3:20: 3m 5f - Betfred Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (Class 1)
Shortlist
Lacdoudal, Innox, Eric´s Charm, Jack High, Therealbandit, Montayral, You´re Special, Presenting Express, Puntal
Against this shortlist using key historical stats and facts (courtesy of the Weatherbys National Hunt Betting Guide)
. Aged 6 (Martin Pipe), 7 or 8
. Trained by Martin Pipe
. First/second season chaser
. Contested in the William Hill NH Chase at Cheltenham
. Proven class A form this season
. Proven over 3m2f
. Carrying <>
Nothing stands out and yet again we need to look for a selection in this race from the angle of “more positives than negatives”.
As this is a staying chase, the key factor over long distances is weight, especially given the stiff up hill finish at Sandown. We also need to factor in the “right-handed” nature of the course. Front runners also do well at Sandown.
So applying some of my own views, it seems that the winner of this race contested in an event that had “national” (Irish/English) in the title. In addition, recent winners are considered to be “classy types”. In the shortlist these are Innox, Puntal, Therealbandit Jack High using a filter which eliminates all horses without a win at Group3 level.
As this race is extremely poor race for "the jolly", Innox is eliminated. Given Martin Pipes win/placed/run record (2-5-32), Puntal has the best fit in terms of trends, however mindful of the dreaded “bounce factor” I need to throw in some more selections.
If you forget his last run at the prices, age and weights unexposed Presenting Express is interesting. Top rated Lacdoudal (ignoring weight) should also run well today if he can overcome his 11st 4lb burden.
I’ll dutch £20 across all three selections.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 4/29/2006 08:38:00 am
3 comments
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3 Comments:
Good call toad!! Puts me to shame.
One Swallow does not make a summer, but thanks Tooting!
Racing Post Comments
A traditional renewal to this fast-ground finale in that there was a strong pace and plenty coming here at the end of a busy season after runs at Cheltenham and Aintree, with only a smattering of runners laid out for the race.
There were suggestions that this was a particularly strong renewal, but the late loss of Racing Post Chase winner Innox was a blow and many of the leading contenders may have high ratings, but most had yet to prove their recent big upward shift by the official handicapper.
Bouncing off the ground early and late in the season seems to be LACDOUDAL's forte and he banished his soft-ground Racing Post Chase form to refind his best. He was already on a career-high mark but has reproduced his December form over the extended three miles here with My Will.
He has been found out for pace over trips short of three miles this season but the way he knuckled down here at the end of this extended trip has connections thinking of the Grand National next year with the one doubt beingthe owner's reluctance.
Totesport look to have taken a big chance in going 40-1 for that race, with a feeling that a ratings rise for this win will leave him near the top of the National weights and he is not overbig. The positives are the likelihood of his favoured ground, the way he measures his fences so well and the improvement to come for stepping up in trip. He is one to have in any National portfolio. He also showed a good sidestep to avoid disaster as Mr Fluffy fell in his path midrace.
Eric's Charm confirmed the good impression of his demolition job of some useful handicappers here last month. Connections blamed the faster ground for his narrow defeat but he had been raised 12lb for that win and did precious little wrong, possibly being a little exuberant early when matching strides with One Knight in setting the pace.
When that rival fell, he was able to get a breather and the winner committed past him before the end of the back straight, giving him a bump for his trouble. He was always just being held but rallied past My Will for second. Another rise is on the cards, but he fully deserves a big handicap prize next winter.
My Will was another reported unsuited by the quickening ground. He was the only one able to make any impression from the back of the pack after six had taken a lead onto the final circuit. He crept closer down the back straight and has run to his good-ground form.
His improved effort on softer ground to finish third in the Racing Post Chase backs up connections' assertion that he would have taken the beating on easier ground. He ends the season winless but a big wage earner for plenty of placings. The trouble is that he is devilishly difficult to place.
Topham winner Liberthine looked to run outof stamina over this extra mile after a gallant effort, although connections felt she would have been closer if her rider had been able to claim the full 7lb rather than put up overweight. She travelled well in midfield, although tended to jump right at some of her fences, and was travelling just as well into the final mile before fading from the second-last.
Therealbandit also looked ill at ease on the ground, jumping left throughout the race, and it got worse under pressure over the last two. Hestill stayed on up the hill, though, without threatening the principals.
He too has better form on easier ground, having beaten My Will in December. He looks plenty high enough in the handicap but is a contender for big handicaps.
It Takes Timeis now a veteran but ran as good a race as could be expected over a trip that stretches his stamina on park tracks. He ran well in the Becher Chase first time out this season before losing his way and he needs further relief from the handicapper for nextwinter, although a return to shorter may also help.
Considering he had run in the Scottish National last week, Calling Brave ran with credit. He was always up with the pace but looked to weaken over the Railway fencesat the end of the back straight before plugging on.
His effort was made to look better as everything else was eased from the third-last, most notably Risk Accessor, who put in a typical effort, travelling well before curling up when put under pressure.
One Knight remains frustrating as he was jumping for fun up front until one misjudgement while You're Special's soft exit also devalued the form.
Former winner Puntal looked to suffer the bounce factor after his good comeback run in the Grand National as he was weakening when squeezed up going out on the last circuit. It may also be that he wants genuinely good ground after his problems.
Last year's winner Jack High was most disappointing, never threatening to make a move, and he flashed his tail alarmingly when pressured.
Presenting Express made his usual mistakes and failed to get into the race. A most disappointing effort from a chaser who looked to be making rapid strides through the season.
Royal Auclair ran flat under his big weight at the end of a tough season where he has proved just short of Grade 1 status. He is firmly in the grip of the handicapper for the big handicaps he is eligible to contest. (BJ)
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