Cheltenham - 4:40 (20th April 2006)
3m - Renault Masters Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 4yo+
4/1 Drumbeater, 11/2 Material World, 12/1 Blue Business, Just Beth, 14/1 Standin Obligation, 20/1 Ostfanni
Recent history suggests that this race is usually won by a 5/6/7/8 year-old. The favourite has only won once in the last 5 years and the winner is either an improver or sleeper. As this is a long distance hurdle race over the undulations of Cheltenham stamina will be a factor so we should side with horses in the middle of the weight range.
If you forgive his run at Haydock (unsuited to going) and last run at Towchester (top weight on a very demanding course), lightly weighted with excellent trainer and jockey stats; Drumbeater should run well today.
Improver Material World was noted in the form book as one that should do well at this meeting after her recent run at Aintree behind Reverence, but I suspect her weight burden will be against her today.
Blue Business has run shockers over fences and reverts to hurdles today. This is the second time this season and on the previous occasion (at Cheltenham) no improvement was found.
Just Beth is ultra consistent but her best form is on very soft ground.
Standin Obligation carries top weight so is passed over. Shame as this Pipe stable seems to be coming back into form.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 4/20/2006 09:37:00 am
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Material World now a non-runner as of 11:11 am. Drumbeater in now the market favourite :-(
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Similar to the earlier handicap hurdle, those towards the lower end of the weights looked, as a group, to hold just as much chance as the higher-rated horses. Indeed,the first ten in the weights (in the absence of Material World) had big question marks in terms of recent form, so this looked a topsy-turvy sort of race.
However, the handicapper had it right, as although STANDIN OBLIGATION looked vulnerable off top weight, having finished in rear in the Pertemps Final over course and distance last month, this company proved more to his liking.
He was steadily brought from the rear to lead at the last, and stayed on strongly up the hill. The weights compiler shouldn't be that harsh on the winner, who has the size to go chasing next season, which the trainer stated is the idea.
Rimsky's sixth of 17 in the SunAlliance Hurdle here last month was decent form in the context of this handicap, and his jockey gave him a deserved pat after finishing runner-up. He can take a handicap of this nature, though he might go up a couple of pounds for this.
Lyes Green's mistake at the last might have cost him second but it didn't cost him the race. This was a good run from just out of the handicap.
Lord Sam was going as well as anything 2 out, but simply finishing a race will do him the world of good and it looks as if his trainer is correct to persevere with him.
Drumbeater's solid form, particularly on decent ground, meant he stood out off 10st 5lb, but perhaps the going was on the slowside of good and therefore anchored him.
Quick took them along and did well to remain in sixth.
Pipssalio was quite an interesting contender, despite being 3lb out of the weights, having finished runner-up at Fontwell 19 days ago after a two-year absence. The distance was a question mark, and he weakened before 2 out, though, all things considered, this was another encouraging effort.
If any horse deserved to win this it was Just Beth, who is as tough and consistent as handicap hurdlers come. However, her sights may have to be lowered a little.
Harrycone Lewis was entitled to respect off 10st 2lb, but has not won at a top track (last three wins at Huntingdon), and that statistic remained.
Bengo's fifth of 17 in first-time blinkers at Newbury last month made him worth a second look off bottom weight (just 1lb ‘wrong'), so this was a shade disappointing.
Blue Business, 12lb higher than when winning this contest a year ago, was back over hurdles after disappointing over fences, but he was never travelling.
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