Irish Grand National - 17th April (2006)
3:50- Powers Whiskey Irish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade A) (5yo+)
Instead of doing DIY during good Friday (not!) and drinking in the pub all day (that comes later) I decided to take a look at the Irish Grand National to determine pointers for Aintree 2007 (five Grand National wins in seven years have been Irish trained horses) . Based on the following stats and facts
. Solid form over 3m2f
. Irish Horses
. Solid form over longer distances at a high level
. Proven form at Fairyhouse
. Aged 7/8/9
. Not the favourite
. < 14/1 in betting forecast
. Ran well in the Midlands Grand National
. Finished 1st or 2nd in Class A race
. Had a run in the last 7 weeks
The ante post vote went to GVA Ireland. I managed to secure 12/1 (£5 Paddy Power) just after the revised (final) weights were released.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 4/14/2006 06:50:00 pm
2 comments
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2 Comments:
I kept looking at this race again and again and I cannot understand why What A Native is such a big price. In his last race a ‘dist’ behind Nil Desperandum (who took 4th in the grand national), beat A New Story, Numbersixvalverde, G V A Ireland Coolnahilladropped, Black Apalachi in the Pierse Leopardstown Handicap Chase, the 9/1 price to place seem far too big on betfair so backed him each-way too.
After watching yesterdays Fairyhouse reviews on ATR) the ground has change quite a bit and is very dry at the moment. This will count against the horses that love soft going. With 2 x 1st places and 2 x 3rd places on ground which is good or betting at distance > 3m2f, Montayral is my “Easter Mug each-way bet” when I take time out to watch the race in between my pub crawl this afternoon.
Racing Post Comments
POINT BARROW, from a stable that has been out of sorts through the winter, left this season's modest form behind him to give his trainer his second success in this event. Given a positive ride by Philip Carberry who sent him to the front before the fourth-last, he soon had most of his pursuers in big trouble and saw out the trip well. The eight-year-old, a very useful staying novice last season when landing a Grade 2 event at Naas and a Grade 3 race at Navan, had hinted at a possible revival in his fortunes in a hurdles outing at Navan last month. If continuing to prosper he should be a factor in some of the major staying handicaps next season.
Oulart, winner of last season's Pertemps Hurdle, is still a maiden over fences, but there was no great surprise about his excellent showing. A nicely-weighted proven stayer, he was the only danger to the winner from some way out and kept up his effort to draw well clear of the third. As a seven-year-old who has raced only six times over fences a solid future lies in front of him.
A New Story, who had finished in front of Point Barrow in a handicap hurdle at Navan last month, has been a most consistent performer in staying handicaps this season and stayed on in typically gutsy fashion after working his way into contention from four out. Runner-up in the Troytown, third in the Pierse Leopadrstown Chase, and third again in the Thyestes, he is a tough and honest staying performer.
Novice mare American Jennie ran a cracking race, coping really well with the step up in grade after a comfortable win in a mares' event at Limerick. She has looked suited by testing conditions in the past, but did not seem inconvenienced by better ground here.
There was a good gap back to Solar System who ran a fine race for a horse more used to plying his trade at a lower level than this. The fact that he has never won at further than two and a half miles underlines that this was a creditable effort.
Coolnahilla just failed to replicate last year's fifth in this event, his 2005 run a more praiseworthy display on account of the fact that he was running from 7lb out of the handicap. He has never won over further than two and three-quarter miles, and perhaps he lacks the stamina to make a major impact over this sort of trip.
Dun Doire has enjoyed an extraordinary season, but with the ground a bit quicker than he would prefer despite afternoon rainfall he was unable to sustain the remarkable degree of improvement that he had shown in winning six in a row, including the Thyestes and the William Hill. Ridden as usual from well off the pace, he never threatened to make any inroads after trying to improve from six out.
In a race that was notable for a lack of fallers one of only two to suffer that fate was Far From Trouble who was travelling well within himself when exiting six from home. He was unlucky at Cheltenham, and there may well be a big pot to be won with him at some stage.
Of the ten who were pulled up the most notable casualty was top-weight Our Ben who could never impose his presence after making a mistake at the sixth.
Other fancied runners who failed to live up to expectations included the Kerry National second Monterey Bay and the Midlands National winner GVA Ireland. The former lacked a recent run, and GVA Ireland is best in the heavy. (AS)
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