Lingfield - 3:35 (1st April 2006)
3:35 6f - Play Roulette At intercasino.co.uk Handicap (Class 2) 4yo+
Fromsong, 11/4, up 1lbs
Qadar, 3/1, up 6lbs
One More Round, 4/1, up 8lbs
Saviours Sprit, 11/2, up in class, but runs well here
Mutamared, 16/1, all weather debutant, good sire stats at this track
Cummiskey, 16/1, better at Southwell, better class today
Pieter Brueghel, 20/1, all weather debutant, better over 7 furlongs
Fromsong, Qadar and One More Round re-oppose after their recent tussle on the 23rd March. Its seems the handicapper has punished the Littmoden horses quite a bit (Fromsong was only 1¼ behind Qadar, One More Round was only 1 nk behind Fromsong).
With only eight horses, the draw does not overly concern me as much as the pace. Muddling to say the least so I sence a tactical battle and therefore a potential upset.
With Saviours Sprit in good form he was close to being given the nod. However, K. Darley’s 0 from 11 record in handicaps at Lingfield immediately put me off.
As an 8yo and a 0/7/13 win/place/run record, I don’t think One More Round has any improvement left to defy the rise in BHB rating.
The win stats for all weather debutants is poor so, in the absence of anything to oppose him, Fromsong is the selection.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 4/01/2006 08:32:00 am
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3 Comments:
Interesting that you came up with Mutamared having good sire stats at the track.
How and where did you get this information, it's something I would like to have a look at.
As per my own blog - I came up with Fromsong too :(
The sire information comes from www.flatstats.co.uk. I did subscribe to their service for a year but found it a little too expensive to justify when all I required was sire information for horses at each particular track especially for all weather debutants.
A stats summery (including sire information) can be found under the ‘today’s racing’ link then ‘course info’ for free the night before racing (but looking at the stats for Kempton today it looks like they may have closed that loop hole).
Pity I didn’t factor this information though in my analysis and tissue. A 5/1 winner would have been nice.
After watching the rerun of the race, Neil Callan is a clever jockey. From stall three he let Fromsong break in front and in so doing forced him to make the early pace then and grab the rail behind. Fromsong was there to be shot down in the final stages.
A complete balls up in the tissue compilation. I should have factored the positive sire stats of Mutamared.
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There looked plenty of pace on beforehand and although they didn't go tearing off, there was certainly no hiding place and the overall time was once again faster than standard.
MUTAMARED clearly doesn't take much getting ready and a recent racecourse gallop at Southwell put him spot on for this Polytrack debut. He was settled in midfield early and got a dream run up the inner as the taps were turned on. Having been brought to challenge the weakening leader Fromsong as they turned for home, he quickened a length clear approaching the furlong marker. All out in the final half-furlong he was able to hold off the two fast finishers, Saviours Spirit and Qadar. He is going to be targeted at all of the big handicap sprints on the turf this summer and connections believe he's got plenty more to offer, but he'll need to given that he is sure to be racing off a higher mark in future.
Saviours Spirit has been in blinding form recently, winning his last three starts over this trip and despite having to fend off another 7lb hike for his latest win, he's clearly still not done with, and having closed in all the way to the line, his progress doesn't look to have come to an end just yet.
Qadar was 6lb higher than for his emphatic five-furlong win here just nine days ago and this step up in trip looked an obvious move on that evidence. He came with a strong late run and was only denied by two heads. This was another solid effort and he's holding his form extremely well.
Cummiskey, wearing blinkers for the first time, ran an eye-catching race in defeat, having lost at least three lengths with a slow start. He was making good progress in the final furlong and was only beaten a length and a half at the line. This represented a return to form.
Fromsong weakened tamely and is probably better over five furlongs nowadays, although he's been in the grip of the assessor recently, while Pieter Brueghel was disappointing on his all-weather debut. He did not adopt his usual trailblazing tactics, his rider instead choosing to sit in behind, but he was in trouble three out and had nothing left to offer in the final two furlongs.
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