The Grand National (8th April 2006)
Before the pre-race hype starts next week and before the bookies manage their liabilities (aka shorten prices), I’ve decided to review my Grand National selections.
Currently Clan Royal @ 14/1 and Silver Birch @ 20/1 are my Ante Post bets.
I still think Clan Royal has an excellent chance, however with Silver Birch in such poor form I’ve decided to trade some 'potential' profit on other selections.
Having reviewed the form of the entries I’m in agreement with Gary Twynam
http://thetootingtissue.blogspot.com/2006/03/grand-national-ante-post.html#comments
With last years punt Hedgehunter far too short (after coming 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup) and the stats against him
"In the last 70 years, only Red Rum has won consecutive Nationals, and Red Rum is also the only winner since 1957 to have defied a burden within half a stone of what Hedgehunter must shoulder." (Chris Cook - Guardian 30th March)
I will cover the Irish angle (four Grand National wins in seven years) with
Garvivonian (17)
Jack High (23)
Numbersixvalverde (26)
Betfair odds in brackets. Dutched £20 potential profit from Clan Royal/Silver Birch to win £122 if any of the Irish trio take the spoils.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 3/29/2006 09:59:00 pm
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A classy renewal of this unique chase with all 40 runners in the handicap, the top weight rated 156 and the bottom weight 23lb above the 110 qualifying mark. The rain that had fallen since Friday's racing turned the ground dead and while this was a hindrance to several, it helped NUMBERSIXVALVERDE, whose previous four wins had all been on soft or heavy. The winner of last season's Irish National when still a novice, he hadn't scored in the interim, having been campaigned over fences and hurdles over shorter trips. Stamina is his forte, though, and this marathon trip brought out the best in him again. Ridden from well off the pace, he was fortunate to escape trouble on several occasions, notably at Becher's first time round when It Takes Time almost fell in front of him. Gradually working his way into the race, he was on the heels of the bunch chasing the leader going down the Becher's second time, and was one of six who were clear going to the third-last. Going on at the last, he gradually asserted for a decisive win. Still comparatively inexperienced, he coped well with the fences and looks a real National sort who should come into the reckoning again if he comes back for next year's race. However, whether he will be as effective on faster ground remains to be seen.
The rain was against last year's winner Hedgehunter - Ruby Walsh reported he was never going as well as 12 months ago. Also, he was racing off a 12lb higher mark. However, he ran a fine race in second, the winner proving too strong for him after the last, and though he is likely to face an even stiffer task next year after his second in the Gold Cup, he's a brilliant National horse and couldn't be ruled out, particularly on better ground.
Clan Royal again ran a fine race, despite making a mistake on the second circuit. In the group who were clear going to the third-last, he still had every chance at the last. Soon afterwards he looked as though he was going to weaken out of it but ran on again to take third close home. It was another sound run, but he has probably had his chance now.
Nil Desperandum was sixth last year and ran ever better this time. Like several of these, the race seems to bring out the best in him. A sound jumper, he may yet make it into a place.
Risk Accessor had unseated his rider on two previous tries in the race, but ran much better this time despite a mistake at the water. Well though he ran, he didn't quite get home and faded to finish fifth.
The 2004 Betfred Gold Cup winner Puntal ran a blinder after more than 400 days off the track. Given a positive ride, he was clear with Ballycassidy at the end of the first circuit but gradually dropped off the pace around the Canal Turn before he got his second wind and finished a creditable sixth.
Joes Edge, last year's Scottish National winner, was within striking distance of the leaders on the run to Becher's second time, but he gradually weakened on ground that wasn't ideal for him. There may be other years for him. Inca Trail, who was a bit keen, ran really well for a long way and jumped well before he ran out of stamina from the third-last. A race like the Becher Chase could be ideal for him.
Forest Gunner, who had been badly out of form, ran his best race for a while on a course that seems to bring out the best in him, but once again he didn't get home. He's another likely Becher Chase candidate for next season.
Last year's Scottish National runner-up Cornish Rebel didn't take to the track and was pulled up after halfway. If this hasn't taken too much out of him, he could be a live candidate if going back to Ayr this month. Therealbandit, who raced wide, ran well for a long way but dropped away in the final mile. His stablemate It Takes Time made a mistake at Becher's first time, never really got competitive and was pulled up. The veteran Nativeupmanship was slow to start and never featured, Lord Of Illusion reportedly bled from the nose, First Gold jumped well in the main and showed up for a long way but was behind when he came down at the Foinavon fence second time round. Age seems to be catching up with him. The same applies to Amberleigh House, who was pulled up on ground that wasn't ideal for him, but Ballycassidy ran a blinder up with the pace and was still clear and going well when he fell at Valentine's second time. Garvivonnian didn't seem to take to the fences and was pulled up after a circuit when well behind. The ground was thought to be too tacky for Iris Royal and Le Roi Miguel didn't get home
Some stats for next years National
In 8 of the past 10 years the ground has been on the fast side of good.
The winner is generally well backed, this is not a race for outsiders.
Only once has the winner started greater than 20/1 (usually in the top eight o fthe betting forecast)
The official ratings range of the winners is quite narrow 136 - 147, 1996 winner Rough Quest (149) was an exception.
The winner's weight range is undoubtedly 10-0 to 10-12.
In the last 10 years only one winner, Hedgehunter carried more than 10-12.
Only three other horses have been placed carrying more than 11-0.
Nine and Ten years olds are dominant. 1994 winner, 12yo Amberleigh House, defied the stats.
The winner is a proven stayer and sound jumper.
Irish horses are to be feared!!
Class horses win this race, not a race for outsiders
trainers usually protect the handicap mark by running the horse over hurdles or inadiqute distances
The winner is usally trained
specifically for the race.
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