The Lincoln Handicap - Redcar (25th March 2006)
William Hill Lincoln Heritage Handicap (2) 1m
Course Description
A left-handed, flat, galloping track with a long run in of 5 furlongs.
All races up to and including 9 furlongs, are run on a straight track and the 8 and 9 furlong events are not for those lacking in resolution. The straight course allows powerful galloping types to lengthen their strides and increase the pace.
Draw Bias
It’s not usual to see big fields throughout the season, but the draw rarely pays a part with runners inclined to converge toward the centre. If I were to stick my neck out I will give preference to those draw toward the middle and like most race courses front-runners should also be given preference.
Analysis
As I wrote last year the draw is always subject of debate, but last year proved that this race attracts unexposed types that are on the fringes of listed/group class. With that level of ability the draw rarely hinders this type of horse in handicap races especially when this race includes a wide range of horses rated between 110 and 64.
From my analysis thus far here are the short listed horses i.e. those that have shown ability in this type of race or unexposed 4yo’s who have already proved their ability as 3yo’s in highly graded handicaps at the end of last season.
{*} Shortlisted
Audience, Kings Majesty, Capable Guest, Gentleman’s Deal, Benedict, Divine Gift, Kamanda Laugh
{*} Possibles
Mine, Nero’s Return, Common World, Azarole, Dansili Dancer, My Paris, Shot to Fame, Zero Tolerance, Cesare, Royal Island
At this stage (76 horses declared) and there are a number of trainers that have multiple entries so the I fully expect one or two horses to be removed from the list when the final declarations are known on Friday.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 3/22/2006 09:05:00 pm
4 comments
News Feed
4 Comments:
The final selections are know and the debate continues regarding pace and draw. I spent some time last night reviewing historical statistics (over the last 8 years) and determined the following key trends.
1. The majority of winners are 4 and 5 year-olds
2. The majority of winners won last time out.
3. All recent winners have won a competitive handicap (BHB rated 0-100) or listed event prior to this race.
Other stats
. Favourites have won four times
. The highest weight winner was 9st 10lbs, the lowest 8st 9lbs
Other comments
. Look for horses which have shown that they come to hand early by winning in the first month of the previous season
. Look for horses with good win and place form in fair handicap company at the back end of last season
Short-listed: Kings Majesty, Kamanda Laugh, Bobodana, Cesare, Zero Tolerance,
Up for considerations were: My Paris and Gentleman’s deal.
Compared to the betting forecast, nothing out of the ordinary, but to be honest these horses have already shown ability (or potential) at this level.
Tissue
11/1 Cesare, 14/1 Kamanda Laugh, Babodana, 20/1 Kings Majesty, Zero
Tolerance, 33/1 My Paris
Negatives counting against the market leaders
Kings Majesty – a “taking” horse, and lack of big field experience, not proven on the predicted going.
Cesare – yet to win at this grade.
Positive for
Kamanda Laugh – loves a straight track, drawn toward the middle, race fit (2nd recent in conditions event over inadequate distance after break of 167 days) likes a galloping track.
Babodana – major drop in class! Well handicapped (1lb lower than last handicap winning mark)
Zero Tolerance - loves a stiff/gall track & relishes rain softened ground
No point in going overboard regarding bets in the first big race of the season so 'very' small stakes on Kamanda Laugh, Babodana, Zero Tolerance. Plus a small exacta, trifecta all horses listed in tissue.
I've ditched the idea of exacta and trifecta bets... the perms are too costly at this stage of the season.
A bit of after timing but Blythe Knight should have been on the short list given that had won at this level previously, suited to conditions and more importantly on a winning handicap mark.
Given the testing ground a number of runners found their lack of race fitness telling. The only horse worth noting is Gentleman’s Deal. Lightly raced he might worth a punt at lower grade (3) on better ground.
Racing Post Comments
Once again the field congregated towards the middle of the track, and though the first two had single-figure draws, there didn't look to be any significant draw bias. BLYTHE KNIGHT didn't have the best of win records for his former yard, but he has always been a capable performer. Back on a fair mark, and with the ground in his favour, he travelled well and found enough to prevail in a driving finish. He raced here off a mark of 95, so he's likely to go back over 100 and won't be easy to place.
Royal Island got a bit outpaced two out but came home strongly to finish a clear second. His wins have been at up to a mile, but he shaped here as though he'll stay a bit further.
Another who could be worth trying over a bit further is Capable Guest, who hit a bit of a flat spot over two out after travelling nicely but then came home well.
Zero Tolerance, who made a bold bid from the front, is on a career-high mark, but he still seems on the upgrade, though he needs some give in the ground.
Audience is on a fair mark, acts on soft and had every chance, having raced close to the pace.
Babadona, who won the race two
years ago, ran on strongly but couldn't get to the leaders.
King's Majesty travelled well for a long way but edged left and failed to pick up in the ground.
Mine wasn't disgraced on ground that was too soft for him, but Sew'n'so Character never really got into it and the trouble he met late on made no difference. Cesare raced towards the far side but never got to grips with the leaders and there will be other days for him. Gentleman's Deal wasn't ideally suited by his high draw, as he lost ground by crossing over towards the middle, but it probably made no difference. He may be worth another chance on slightly better ground. His stablemate Blue Spinnaker certainly needs better ground, while My Paris faded after showing speed and Realism and Chrysander were struggling from an early stage.
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