Wolverhampton - 4:30 (31st March 2006)

4:30 5f 20yds - Enjoy Racing From The Zongalero Restaurant Handicap (Class 6)

With Newcastle abandoned, and not fancying any of the races at Musselburgh, I decided to go back to my old favourite Wolverhampton. I’m glad I did!

Applying the new selection technique at this race has made me realise why punters should tread carefully on the all weather.

If we eliminate for one moment the draw bias as this distance (Stalls 1 to 6 won 56 of 82 races 68% courtesy of www.startingstalls.co.uk) there is only 10lbs between the highest and lowest BHB rated horse (65-55) and this race is a Class 6 (ratings range from 46-65) one level above the dreaded Banded Class. All in all betting in this race requires the punter to choose one (or more) horses that are closely matched and are unreliable from a formbook perspective (given this grade of racing). Not a good long term investment strategy.

Anyway, seven horses made the short list,

9/2 Almaty Express, 11/2 Lady Bahia, 7/1 Salon Prive, 10/1 Desert Opal, Sahara Silk, 14/1 Times Review, Monte Major, 25/1 Bar

In reviewing the profiles of each runner, there is absolutely tonnes of pace in this race.

Almaty Express will try to dominate all which might be difficult. However given that he is dropped in class, trainer/jockey combination is 2 from 4 and well drawn, he is the obvious selection. However for the virtual bet I’m going to select Lady Bahia who is relatively unexposed, well drawn, a hold up performer (in the context of this race) and seems to be heading in the right direction. The ‘stranger’ Salon Prive will find it difficult to dominate from stall 11 but is on a winning handicap mark, dropped in class and is thrown in for dual forecast purposes.

Definitely a race to watch and if there’s one thing I have learnt from this exercise, I should limit selections on the All Weather to highly graded Handicaps, Conditions and Claiming races under the new selection policy.

I wish I had this hindsight a few months ago.