Pontefract - 3:20 (4th April 2006)

3:20 - Pontefract Park Handicap (Class 3) 4yo+

9/2 San Antonio, 5/1 Focus Group, 13/2 Byron Bay, 8/1 Nero´s Return, 10/1 King´s Thought, 16/1 Thunderwing, Blue Spinnaker, 25/1 Bar

A number of factors to consider here, namely the going and early season fitness.

I hate to agree with the Racing Post, but Focus Group seems the obvious choice. Ability on heavy going has to be taken on trust however he runs extremely well fresh and his trainer has already proven in the Lincoln that he can get them ready first time out. Two things swung selection in his favour.

In his previous race at Newmarket, the runner up to Focus Group, ‘Notnowcato’ went on to win a 86-100 handicap at Newmarket in an extremely fast time. If Focus Group has retained his ability this race should be a cake walk. The second factor is pace. Pontefract has a stiff 3 furlong finish and the pace profile suggests that front runners don’t have enough stamina to make all over 1 mile.

There are three runners in the race that like to dominate, San Antonio, Kings Thought and Fortune Island. Focus Group’s running style and proximity to the pace suggests that he’ll sit behind the leaders and then pounce in the final stages.

For insurance (and at the prices) I also like the look of Byron Bay over Nero’s Return. Bryon Bay is on a winning handicap mark and has proven his preference heavy going. His pace profile suggest that he’ll be going passed the leaders at the finish unlike Nero’s Return who is drawn wide. His ‘held up’ style and the 90deg turn at Pontefract will mean that he’ll need to come from a long way off to win.

Definitely a small stakes race.