2000 Guineas Stakes - Newmarket (6th May 2006)
3:15 1m - Stan James 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) 3yo
Shortlist: George Washington, Sir Percy, Horatio Nelson, Amadeus Wolf, Misu Bond, Frost Giant
Selection: No Bet
The shortlist was created by using the historical stats which points to previous winners of this race being successful at 7f/1m (preferably in group class) as a 2 year-old and last time out win.
With no winning favourite in the last 10 years, George Washington offers poor value. Who shall oppose him?
In terms of Guineas trials, Dewhurst holds the best credentials and therefore the spotlight falls on Sir Percy. Unfortunately this race usually goes to one of the big stables (O'Brien, Saeed bin Suroor, Sir Michael Stoute and BW Hills) so he will need to be something special to buck this trend.
Selection is further confused by the words from the following web site that has proved very useful in identifying classic contenders based on breeding preferences.
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2006_2000_guineas_preview.htm
As the data points toward a George Washington win this eliminates my only remaining option (a lay bet) so no involvement for me and I’ll watch from the sidelines.
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 5/06/2006 08:04:00 am
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A very strong field, featuring the top six in the European Free Handicap and nine Group winners, four of them at the highest level, and one of them unbeaten.
In keeping with the modern trend, which had seen seven of the last ten winners go to post without a recent run, eight of the 14 runners were making their seasonal reappearances.
It has been "good to firm" several times in recent years, but it walked particularly quick this time, albeit with a good covering of grass. However, it seemed uniform across the track and so thankfully there was no temptation for the field to disperse to either side of the track in search of the supposedly better ground.
GEORGE WASHINGTON had looked a sensational prospect in last year's Phoenix Stakes, when a runaway winner in a brilliant time, but he was more workmanlike in the Railway Stakes, and he had questions to answer here, with the stable's colts so quiet thus far and his stamina and temperament under suspicion.
To his immense credit, he answered his critics in the best possible fashion, showing a stunning change of pace and winning in tremendous style, despite idling and wandering to the right after finding himself out on his own sooner than was intended.
Though difficult in the saddling area, he behaved himself in the parade ring and on the way to post. Keen in rear in the early stages of the race, when the pace was far from strong, he made his ground with improbable ease when asked to improve over two out and was in front well over a furlong from home.
He needed little encouragement to go clear, but then pricked his ears, idled, and drifted right. One right-hander corrected that, and he was in no danger of being caught. He was value for more than the bare margin.
His character was in evidence again when he refused to go back into the winner's enclosure, and it's hard to imagine him going to Epsom. The occasion could so easily get to him, and he has so much speed that his stamina would surely be stretched to the limit.
Sir Percy got warm in the preliminaries but it didn't seem to bother him. While he was the only unbeaten runner in the field and had less questions than most to answer, the drying ground had to be a concern. He seemed to handle it fine though and was simply outspeeded after racing in close touch towards the stands' side of the group until drifting right, like the winner, in the closing stages.
There are good grounds for thinking he will be just as effective at 1m4f and he will go to Epsom one of the market leaders. However, he failed to impress as a likely winner of the Derby.
Olympian Odyssey, so unlucky here in the Feilden, was jumped straight out in front this time but set a far from searching pace. He had it pretty much to himself up front and he kept on after George Washington had surged past him. While the jockey is inclined towards the Irish 2,000 Guineas, the trainer fancies the Derby. Barry Hills is overdue a change of luck there, but this one will have to improve significantly.
They were in a bitof a heap behind the first three, headed by the Horris Hill third Araafa, who was one of the surprise packages in the race and excelled himself by running on well in the final furlong after racing quite keenly on the near side of the pack. His trainer has plenty of talent at this distance - at the last meeting he saddled the winners of both divisions of the Wood Ditton - so it remains to be seen where he goes now, but he has clearly improved since last year and looks pretty smart.
The Free Handicap winner Misu Bond did well to finish fifth, because he got outpaced and raced at the back of the field before running on under pressure from over a furlong out. However, his pedigree does not suggest he is crying out for further.
Final Verse, who had beaten Araafa in the Horris Hill, was much too keen for his own good, but he stayed on better than many.
The Gimcrack and Middle Park have been a poor guide to the Guineas in modern times, and Amadeus Wolf and Red Clubs failed to arrest that decline. Racing on either flank, they both shaped, as feared, like sprinters. Amadeus Wolf now goes straight for the Golden Jubilee, and Red Clubs will also drop back down in trip.
Horatio Nelson had much the same chance as Sir Percy on Dewhurst form, so he has to go down as a big disappointment even allowing for all of the negative vibes about his readiness. Racing towards the far side of the pack, he started to struggle with over 2f to go, and while one might have expected to see him staying on, he was weakening in the final furlong. He could come on considerably for the outing, but he owes his continued prominence in the Epsom betting largely to existing liabilities.
The Easter Stakes winner Asset was among the most imposing members of the field, but he owed his position in the betting more to the impression he made at Kempton and to the confidence behind him at home than to the strength of his form. He didn't help himself by taking a good hold, and he got a bit unbalanced down the hill, but he might prove better over shorter in something like the Jersey Stakes if connections don't give him another go at a mile in Ireland.
Close To You was another to race quite keenly and he also looked to get a bit unbalanced. Connections reckon the ground was on the quick side, and he is definitely better than this. He could go for the St James's Palace next.
The Craven winner Killybegs was another disappointment, although in fairness that form looked suspect and his 2yo form didn't entitle him to be much closer. He kept his stablemate Olympian Odyssey in his sights but was going nowhere in the final furlong.
Frost Giant, a potentially smart prospect, though Ballydoyle's third string and previously never tried on anything but soft ground, raced prominently enough through the early stages before losing his place badly and was trailing the field soon after halfway. He had evidently got a bit worked up beforehand, which can not have helped.
Opera Cape, a solid if unspectacular juvenile, made an inauspicious debut for Godolphin and was among the backmarkers throughout.
*Johnny Murtagh reported that Frost Giant missed the break.
*Frankie Dettori reported that Opera Cape ran flat. (GD)
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