Huntingdon - 1.40 (9 Nov 2004)
Igloos Handicap Chase (Class E) (5yo+,0-105) 3m
Course Description
A right handed galloping track with above average fences. This course favours horses that are highly rated on speed ratings, past course winners and horses that can also run up with the pace as the finishing line is 200 yards from the final fence.
Analysis
Three Days Reign comes here after a recent win at Folkstone. This win was after a 493 day layoff and it looks like connections are rearming and refueling for another attack. However with only one run at 3 miles (2nd and 6 lengths behind the eventual winner) I am concerned that this race might be too soon for this horse. His trainer stated that [Racing Post Quote] "We have to go carefully as he doesn't want it too soft but he can't run on good to firm any more. It is just unfortunate his legs are too old as he has got an engine." He may be right but at projected odds of 11/10 he has got to be opposed but whom with?
From speed ratings, the main dangers are Just Jolly or Breaking Breeze.
Just Jolly is lightly raced. He is a course and distance winner last time out in a novices chase event. This win however was due to jumping errors from his rivals. He has to defy a 7lb penalty but comes here with confidence of a recent win and so should be there or there about.
I like the look of Breaking Breeze. He stays 3 miles well and runs well around right handed tracks He has excellent form at Huntingdon and is a natural front runner. He was second is a more competitive event last time out and deserves a win soon according to the form book.
I shall wait until just before the off to watch any market moves but my final selection is between Breaking Breeze or Just Jolly (or both with split stakes)
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/08/2004 11:13:00 pm
2 comments
News Feed
2 Comments:
Split stakes bet. £2.50 on Breaking Breeze and Just Jolly both matched at 7's (betfair)
I guess the trainer was correct ... ...
Racing Post Anaysis
A strongly-run race which ultimately concerned two potentially well handicapped horses in THREE DAYS REIGN(1) and Just Jolly. Three Days Reign followed up his good comeback win at Folkestone last week off the same mark, again showing his jumping ishis strong point. He had to battle hard and was all out to withhold Just Jolly, who had won well at the last meeting and excelled under his 7lb penalty, again benefitting from his rider taking off 10lb under a restrained ride.
Both look capable of winning again after being reassessed, although the winner has dodgy legs and finished leg weary after this second run in a week. Just Jolly hit the third last when getting to the leaders but recovered and was only just outrun, clear of the rest from the home turn.
Post a Comment
<< Home