Beverley - 3:35 (2 July 2005)
5f - Coachman Caravans Quality Handicap (Class 3) 3yo+
Course Description
Right-handed oval course with a stiff uphill finish of 2½ furlongs. Due to the nature of the course, this track is not really suitable for the adoption of waiting tactics. Form Students should give the claims of course and distance winner’s particular consideration.
Draw Bias at 5f
High numbers dominate (top 6 six stalls) results over this distance and one of the strongest biases in the entire country.
Analysis
Selections: Trojan Flight: £6 win, Melalchrist: £4 win
On all ratings, statistics and recent form the favourite, Trinculo seems to be the one to “lump on” but at the current odds?
Fortunately for me I am a discerning favourite backer and on this occasion I will give this jolly a swerve. Why? Trinculo is fairly exposed and takes a big step up in class from recent wins at claiming grade and my rules are to always oppose such horses. With this doubt about his ability to compete at this level, I will take him on with the following selections and slightly alter the proportion of my bets based on preference.
It is getting toward that time in the year backing 3yo’s when competing against their elders in not the fast track to the poor house. Melalchrist comes into consideration based on draw (stall 13), a good run last time out, pace figures (he likes to race at the head toward the head of the field) and that he has course experience on his side with two wins as a juvenile.
Trojan Flight is “Mr Consistent”. A course and distance winner his recent runs suggest that conditions were against him on both occasions so more is expected today.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 7/02/2005 07:34:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Trojan Flight was 6th @ 9/2 Melalchrist was 4th @ 13/2
There are times when you need to take it on the chin. Regardless of class Trinculo had conditions in his favour and I recognised this in my analysis (along with the draw bias) but because of my search for value I ignored the obvious.
Racing Post Comments
A competitive handicap, in which the draw, as usual, played a big part over this minimum trip.
The first four home came from the four highest-numbered stalls, with TRINCULO leading them all the way and hanging on grimly.
His early pace was significant here, and, while the pursuing pack were tighly-grouped, he enjoyed the luxury of a clean run from the front. He is in great form at present.
Salviati came home strongly after being briefly tight for room as he wriggled his way through. He can surely gain compensation shortly.
Henry Hall, another who did not get a great deal of room, continues to run well in defeat.
Melalchrist, who ran well last time, did so again against these old horses.
Orpen Wide was another three-year-old to shape with real credit, especially as he was trying to overcome a wide draw.He is clearly in great heart at present.
Trojan Flight and Connect both performed respectably, but a low draw, coupled with reverting to the minimum trip, was too much for Bo McGinty to overcome.
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