Southwell 3:00 (15th Nov 2006)
3:00 5f - Arena Leisure Handicap (Class 3)
With the stalls place on the outside my progressive draw stats indicate that stalls 1-8 are the traps we need to concentrate on. Throw into the mix a requirement for early pace and at 9/2 on my tissue Dancing Mystery is a bet.. Draw in stall 5 and unlikely to get into a speed dual he can blast down the middle of the track and play catch me if you can..
If course conditions favour prominent runners then at a price I also like the look of Efistorm. From my review of the video form courtesy of ATR, he was given a “quite” ride on his course reappearance. Has won from a wide draw over 5 furlongs (a difficult task on this surface) and I feel the odds compliers have underestimated his chances on his favoured surface from a favoured draw (stall 2) even though this is a step up in class.
Of the others Matuza, will need to sprout wings from a long way back given his running style (held up). As the Racing Post indicates Stoneacre Lad will hang left but onto the worst part of the track (far rail). Zowingtons chances have been done by the draw and as there is not much pace in the race ... his running style (held up similar to Matuza)

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1 Comments:
Dancing Mystery gets the winter off to nice start.
Twice this week I have given A/W form precedence over ability during the selection process. The horses (like Efistorm) have ran well but they’ve lacked the class to win so I’ve adjusted the process to exclude/ignore class in low grade races (class 5 and below. Above this level class has got to be a factor ...
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