Warts and All (29th Nov 2006) - Post Wolverhampton Mutterings

Such was my day out at Wolverhampton; it has taken me till now to recover from the excesses of alcohol.

Two years ago I waxed lyrical about the facilities at Wolverhampton and since then their standards have not deteriorated.

Easy access to the course, a hotel adjoining the track, plenty of space to roam (given the lack of interest in “dog track” racing in the UK), easy access to the bars and facilities, the only blot was that chicken burgers warmed up in a microwave taste absolutely awful.

As I mentioned in my pre-race write up, there were a number of objectives to the day. However I did not mention another objective, exotic betting.

Since the summer I’ve had my nose in American horse racing literature. A partially good book on the subject (way way better than Nick Mordlin section in “Betting for a Living”) is

Exotic Betting: How to Make the Multihorse, Multirace Bets that Win Racing's Biggest Payoffs by Steven Crist.

His and other insights make me believe that there is value to be gained in Exacta/Trifecta betting this side of the water. My feelings are that most punters do not know to exploit these bet types as part of their handicapping. Unfortunately (or fortunately for me) the bookies have exploited punters greed for the “big hit” in promoting lucky15’s, Yankees, round-robins etc.

My problem with these types of bets previously has been betting two many combinations in my perm and bad (poor value) perms.

However armed with the knowledge of terms such as “part-wheels”, “key horse”, “over” and given the fact the Premier bar was devoid of punters I had plenty of time to question Sue (in the picture) and her assistant (whose name I cant recall) about placing these type of bets on the tote machine and how they are entered by the teller..

So for example a four horse exacta keying horse “A” would look like this..

A/BCD/BCD
BCD/A/BCD
BCD/BCD/A

Wherever you see the “/” say “with” (A with BCD with BCD). Easy peasy lemon squeezy

More about this bet later in the 1:45 race..

By the time the first race started I had already sunken a few and had decided to follow my pre-race (and pre-drunken) rational for the day.

Aureate was way way too short so plumed for an exacta with Snow Dancer which to my amazement came in, the tote paying £20.20 and Snow Dancer’s place position paid £9.40! After this result (and results later in the card for the 3yo races) I’ll be continuing my research on breeding and pedigree analysis..

With my tail up it was time to hit the trifecta in the 1:45.. Pre-race analysis marked this race down as an open event. Situla was a shoe in for a place on my analysis so I decided to use him as the key horse in my trifecta wheel (i.e. “A” above) and perm the remaining place positions with Hephaestus, Madam Gaffer, Raquel White, Bert´s Memory

Unfortunately Alittlebitleft had other ideas and did me out of my first Trifecta, but hey, as I did not go over board (each line only cost £2.40 at 20p per perm line) I had not done too much damage but had learnt an invaluable lesson in exotic betting which I hope to capitalise on soon.

The 2:20 was initially earmarked as my big bet of the day, but Matuza in the ring was far too short (5/2) and so a “no bet”.

In hindsight I dodged a bullet due to a handicapping error. Pre-race, my logic was flawed in thinking that Matuza would produce the same form when switching from Fibresand to Polytrack. And funny enough for some reason during the race I kept on hearing Barrie Dennis’s (Channel 4 TV bookmaker) voice in my head repeating the words “we luv horses who are unlucky in running last time out, we luv em!”. As you’ve guessed Matuza was unlucky in running in his Southwell race.. d’oh

Anyway a place bet on Price Tum Tum between my friends and I at 8/1 ensured a tidy profit on the race..

The 2:50, a seller and a “lesser of evils” race if I ever saw one. With no pre-race view it was a hit and hope pool bet amongst my friends again. And wow we scored a beauty when Cool Isle romped home and we managed to get 16/1 in the ring..

At this point, the afternoon descended into a drunken haze, but Breeding/Pedigree bets on Fares in the 4:00 (Salient was far too short) and La Estrella in the 4:30, plus the place pot

Ensured further funds for the drinking kitty and meals etc in the “The Moreton Arms” till late into the night..

So what did I learn

. More so than a low draw position, you need to be handily placed by the second to last turn at Wolverhampton if the track is favouring early pace..
. Exacta and Trifeca betting are potentially dynamite bets I will be looking to exploit the fact that there is an awful lot of value in their payouts and these bets types are overlooked by the betting public..
. Breeding and Pedigree are totally overlooked by the betting public when betting on the All-Weather surface.
. At 43 my all day/night drinking days are over..