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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Kempton (29th Aug 2007)

"Buyers beware" on these selections as I am currently in the US and won’t have access to the tote board just before the race to determine what the crowd thinks before the start (my new policy requires > 50% odd premium on selection based on my tissue). Therefore theses are virtual selections.

2.10 - Mix Business with Pleasure Handicap Stakes

5/2 What Do You Know, 3/1 Siraj, 6/1 Silver Prelude, Heavens Walk

With a minimal difference between BHB ratings, this is the type of race that usually produces a big priced winner. Can’t understand what Even Bolder is favourite? His BHB rating and previous performances indicate that he’ll have the letters BF written adjacent to his name on his next outing.

Though 1st and 2nd rated, Silver Prelude and Heavens Walk have questions to answer in terms of the draw. Course specialist Siraj needs to overcome a 87 day course absence so marginal preference is given to What Do You Know who teams up with Richard Hughes to see if they can once more repeat their course and distance success from June of this year.

Selection: What Do You Know

Danger: Siraj

16:40 - Digibet Sports Betting Handicap

2/1 Bonnie Prince Blue, 5/1 One Night In Paris, Cape of Luck, 6/1 Marajaa

Another tight handicap! One Night In Paris presents a tempting selection at a big price. Prior to becoming lame, she was on an upward curve and given her drawn position and pace analysis (lone early), if she can overcome the break, she will be able to run the race to suit from stall eleven. Therefore I feel she is under rated by the current market. Bonnie Prince Blue is on a winning mark, dropped in class and is noted as one that requires polytrack to perform at his best and has ticks in all boxes today but the crowd wont have missed his obvious credentials so selection depends on price at the off.

Selection Bonnie Price Blue

Danger: One Night In Paris

2 Comments:

At Wednesday, August 29, 2007 6:46:00 pm, Blogger Sandracer said...

Excellent result there on "What Do You Know" at 7/1 Slippery Toad.

I wish I was on. Instead I was working fpr a living.

How stupid am I?

Well for some reason I did not have today's Kempton meeting down on my fixture list, so I arranged something else to do, doh.

 
At Wednesday, August 29, 2007 11:57:00 pm, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

Thanks Sandracer..

Not bad in the 2:10 with What Do You Know landing the spoils at 7/1 (opened at 10/1). Now for the bad news..

I always look to oppose maidens in first time in handicaps (on this occasion Even Bolder) but such was haste to eliminate Even Bolder from contention, I overlooked the fundamental rule in odds compilation that every horse has a chance of winning a race.

The trick is to estimate the percentage probability in terms of odds. Therefore as a course and distance winner (though in maiden company) Even Bolder as a unexposed 3yo had good credentials compared to the rest of the field and so should have been included in the tissue..

In reviewing my analysis again, in the 4:40 due to a handicapping error I missed the fact that Resplendent Nova had placed a number of times over course and distance and was running on a lenient BHB mark.

There endith the lesson for today!

 

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