Wolverhampton 2.15 - Bet Now At Wbx Com Handicap Stakes (20th Aug 2007)
Flying to the United States this morning, but was up all night monitoring news regarding hurricane Dean and calling relatives in Jamaica so needed something to keep my mind busy..
3/1 The Salwick Flyer, 7/2 Creme Brulee, 9/2 North Fleet 6/1 Blackheath
An extremely contentious race with only 3lbs on BHB ratings separating top and bottom weight! Akin to a golf tournament full of Tiger Woods (which version will win today). This is a race to avoid or small stakes punt at longish prices.
Though Salwick Flyer won last time out, he looks opposable in the context of this race, as both his previous runs on polytrack have been poor. And such a skinny price too!
As I write Jilly Why is currently 2nd favourite and a clue to the poor nature of this race is indicated by the fact that her win/place/run record at Wolverhampton is 0/1/14!
Crème Brulee looks the stranger in the race returning from a 157 day absence. Dropped to a useful BHB mark, blinkers off and well drawn she can track the pace behind Northfleet who on base form looks opposable but has ran well twice as a 4yo on polytrack, good draw and another who has been given a chance by the handicapper.
Blackheath has been done no favours by the draw.
Value selections: Creme Brulee & North Fleet
posted by Slipperytoad @ 8/20/2007 05:06:00 am
3 comments
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3 Comments:
Hello Slippery Toad.
While it's not a competition, I figured i'd mention why I went for Ballybunion.
# At the large odds, I am hoping from the number 2 draw this old dog Ballybunion can repeat his reasonable, and best ever, last all-weather run (Kempton admittedly) 5 races ago, but from slightly closer to the pace due to the decent racing position.
If the horse does and runs on as previously, could spring a big surprise at silly odds.
A small stake punt overall.
Cheers, Sandracer.
No worries Sandracer. You like me read this event as having all the hallmarks of a race that produces big priced winners.. Unfortunately we were both on the right path but it was 20/1 Arfinnit that did us both.
I’m beginning to notice a pattern emerging in these tight contentious races and I’ll be looking to test my theory on the next race of this type.
Yip.
Arfinnit finished behind mine last time up on the sand, and had the worst of the draw today.
I was less than pleased to see that particular horse win the races today.
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