4:40 - lingfield park for exhibitions handicap (3rd Sept 2007)

(a.) 3/1 King After, (b) 4/1 Greenmeadow, (c) 9/2 Exotic Venture, (d) 5/1 Blue Quiver

As a beaten favourite last time out plus a whole host of other reasons (false favourite) for win purposes Postmaster doesn’t factor in the tissue (or in the exotic bet – see below).

Based on his success on polytrack as a maiden Greenmeadow likes polytrack is on a winning turf handicap mark however, he's gone up 2lbs for finishing 7th last time out plus a nagging doubt about a preference for 1m1f.

Both Exotic Venture and top rated Blue Quiver (52 day course absence) didn’t have enough negatives to eliminate form consideration..

King After has positives in spades. On a winning mark, likes Lingfield and with a recent run in a fast time I’m amazed about his overnight price.

Speaking of the tissue, it important to note that (after many false dawns) I’m firmly in the camp of “bet the value” over “selection”. With that (especially in these low grade affairs) it’s important to monitor the starting prices close to the off to obtain the prices advised below or eliminate the selection from consideration (and possibly look elsewhere based on the tissue) if drifting wildly on the exchanges.

Selection: King After @ 4/1 or better
Danger: Greenmeadow @ 11/2 or better

After reviewing my records, I’ve discovered that I may be missing out on some value in the exotics (computer straight forecast/exacta) so per my long term plan from now on I’ll post exacta perms and monitor progress..

For this race..

AB/ABC (6 lines)

1st King After or Greenmeadow
2nd King After or Greenmeadow or Exotic Venture