Aintree - 2:20 (20 Nov 2004)
betfair.com Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (Class C) (Over The Grand National Course) (5yo+,0-130) 2m5½
Course Description
Aintree is best known for the Grand National and today’s event is also being run over this the long, flat, galloping, and triangular circuit of 2m 2f. The fences are stiff and test the jumping ability of contestants. In addition Aintree is infamous for the long 494 yard energy sapping run which tests the resolution and stamina of many runners.
Analysis
Slipperytoad Verses Pricewise.
The concept of the Racing Post ‘Pricewise’ column was to introduce new approaches to tipping. In the words of the current writer Tom Segal
“The one thing most punters get confused about is that the Pricewise column is totally dedicated to the price. For example if they were to bet 1/3 Galileo and 5/1 Fantastic Light for the Irish Champion Stakes there can only be one Pricewise selection, despite the fact that I personally think Galileo will win again. Consequently, as all those that have done Pricewise in the past will tell you, we often think there are others more likely to win a certain race than our selection. The dreaded word 'value' is the key and 5-1 Fantatsic Light would simply be too big a price to sniff at because he can win and should be around 5-2”
Today, Tom selects Rheindross. After my own analysis I think Tom is wrong. Racing is all about opinions so here are mine.
Firstly, the market. Rheindross is favorite on the racing post tissue but at current odds of 6-1 (from 8-1 due to being selected by Pricewise) there is not much confidence for Tom’s selection.
Next, the going at Aintree is soft and this important factor can change the scope the race from a form perspective. Horses noted for good runs over soft going are, Another Joker, Dark Room, Gatorade, Tipsy Mouse, Mac Hind, Asparagus and Imaginaire.
From form analysis one that should run well today is Another Joker. An improving 9yo, has proven ability over distance and loves to front run. This should ensure that the race is run at a good pace and test the stamina of the other contestants on the soft ground. I also like the look of Asparagus who should also revel in the conditions. He performs well when able to dominate and should also ensure a decent pace and is proven at this grade.
At the odds I shall have a split takes bet on Another Joker and Asparagus, with preference given to Asparagus (£2, £3 bet’s respectively)
Game on!
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/20/2004 01:02:00 pm
1 comments
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1 Comments:
Close, but not close enough to take the spoils and bragging rights over Pricewise. On reflection at the odds an each-way bet was warranted but, everybody has a degree in hindsight!
Racing Post Analysis
FOREST GUNNER(1), who showed a liking for the Grand National fences when winning the Fox Hunters' in such scintillating style in April, gave another exhibition round of jumping over these unique obstacles. Never out of the first two, the winner got into a great rhythm and never looked like being collared from three out. He would be an interesting horse in the Grand National, running off a low weight, but connections fear that he does not possess the required stamina for four and a half miles and are more likely to aim for the Topham Trophy.
Asparagus, who travelled well through the race, looked a live danger to the winner four out, but, when push came to shove, he could only stay on at the same pace.
Another Joker took a heavy fall at Bechers, when travelling nicely within himself.
On review of the race, I have a feeling that Another Joker would have been there or there abouts
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