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Friday, November 19, 2004

Wolverhampton - 4:25 (19 Nov 2004)

Bet Direct At Dunstall Park Handicap (Div II) (F4) (3yo+,0-62) 1m4f (1m4f50y)

Course Description
After several high-profile problems with fibresand, the surface at wolverhampton has been replaced with polytrack which is the same surface used at Lingfield Park's All-Weather course.

The polytrack surface is a combination of conventional and synthetic materials. Its unique formula is comprised of polypropylene fibers cut at various lengths and mixed with other materials including recycled rubber and silica sand that are then covered in a wax coating. Evidence indicates that Polytrack is safer for horses, requires less maintenance, reduces kickback, is highly adaptable for various training regimens and race courses, and maintains uniformity under all weather conditions. Hence its popularity for All-weather racing

Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to last the distance off a strong pace. If there is no pace then “all bets are off” as the race will be reduced to a sprint off the final turn (3 furlongs from the finish line)

With a new surface the draw bias has been debated widely [Racing Forum:
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=15&topic=6482] and is still inconclusive at this time.

Analysis
A difficult decision between Field Spark and Anyhow.

Other’s who will contest for the minor places are Velocitas who was 2nd last time out and 3½ lengths ahead of Mr Midasman. However he is making a step up in trip for the first time. Bank on Him is an interesting runner who revels in claimers and selling races, loves the polytrack surface and goes extremely well fresh. However he may find this level a little too competitive but is one for the notebook if running well today after an absence of 190 days.

With a strong pace guaranteed by the entries of Kernel Dowery, Mr Midasman and Dream Valley, Anyhow is a polytrack specialist, who goes the distance and loves to come late from off the pace.

Challenging for first palace honors, Field Spark is less exposed on the All-weather surface, but recent runs suggest he is handicapped to win soon. Ridden by the underrated Paul Hanagan another good run is assured today.

With the market unable to split the two (as of 11:30am, both horses are 5’s on Betfair) I will stick my neck out and select Field Spark.

3 Comments:

At Friday, November 19, 2004 5:18:00 pm, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

As feared, the race proceeded at a slow pace in the early stages and a blanket sprint finish to the line decided the final placing. Worse still my shortlist selections were placed as follows

1st Mr Midasman 7-1
2nd Bank On Him 9-1
3rd Velocitas 8-1

5th Field Spark

The Tote exacta and computer straight forecast paid £62.60 and £69.18 respectively for a £1 stake. D’oh if only!

Mr Midasman reversed the form over Velocitas and Bank On Him goes into the notebook after a good run in second.

After reviewing the replay of the race, I shall consider limiting my race selections over the All-Weather surface to races up to one furlong. This will ensure that tactically run races are avoided.

Oh well, score A(+)for form analysis and F(-)for selection analysis..

 
At Friday, November 19, 2004 5:35:00 pm, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

Well, I can draw comfort from the fact that I was not the only person who felt that Field Spark had potential for a good run today. The following bets were placed on Field Spark at Wolverhampton today (courtesy Sporting Life Web site)

Opened 7/2 - £2200-£800(x2), £1100-£400(x2), £2500-£1000, £1250-£500, £900-£400

Makes my £5 look like chicken feed. I have a long way to go!

 
At Saturday, November 20, 2004 8:45:00 am, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

Racing Post Analysis

Stepping up MR MIDASMAN(1) to a mile and a half worked the oracle, and in a slow-run race he came from last to first to ‘mug' Bank On Him close home.

The runner-up has been off four months and, while he looked fit enough, he is bound to be sharper next time.

Velocitas is consistent, but lack of a turn of foot has proved his downfall and, despite being upped in trip, he was again exposed for pace. He needs a faster gallop.

Loaded Gun remains a maiden after 16 races and was another unsuited by the sedate pace, as was Field Spark, who was being scrubbed along some way from home.

Anyhow has been dropping down the weights but could never muster a blow,

 

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