Folkstone 3:10 (30th Mar 2005)
Visit Port Lympne Handicap Stakes (5) 7f
Course Description
The track itself is a pare-shaped undulating course that runs right-handed for 1m3f. Folkestone is generally considered to be an easy course that does really favour the long striding resolute galloper whose strong suit is stamina. Short runners with tactically astute jockeys are favoured.
Draw Bias over 7f
Evidence suggests that runners will track over to the far side therefore mid to high drawn horses are favoured. Especially on soft ground
Analysis
Selection: Jazzy Millennium – best suited to conditions and is well drawn (9/2 or better)
A historical moment! My first race which ties together the ratings process and my own betting forecast. I won’t be betting in this race as this is only a paper work exercise to develop form reading and value analysis skills.
This was a difficult race to assess as many entrants arrive with moderate form. In addition there are a mixture of horses fit from All–Weather racing and those making their seasonal re-appearance. The short listed horses (with my estimated SP) are
Jazzy Millennium (9/2), Majik (5/1), Out for A Stroll (11/2), Siraj, The Way We Were, Russian Applause (6/1)
Jazzy Millennium returns to handicaps after a couple of runs in classified events and is suited to 6/7f on soft ground.
Majik is fit and in good form but is stepping up in trip and seems to reserve best efforts for the fibresand surface. Racing Post market leader. 20% strike-rate for favourites at Folkstone ensures elimination.
Siraj, like Majik is fit and ready from the All-Weather. Has a recent win in handicap company but is stepping up in trip. Soft going is also a concern
Out For A Stroll hails from the Stewart Williams yard and is noted for getting one ready for a ‘touch’. On a loosing run however is on a winning handicap mark. The draw may prove to be his un-doing.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 3/29/2005 08:34:00 pm
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Not bad but not good for the first attempt at a betting forecast. The big mistake was not factoring the predicted draw bias into the prices which would have brought Go yellow, and Adorata (drawn high) into selection contention.
Racing Post Comments
Once again they congregated towards the far rail, and the first five finishers, who finished well clear of the rest, were the five drawn highest.
GO YELLOW was unproven on this sort of ground, but he handled it well. Having made the running and been a couple of lengths clear two out he was narrowly headed and looked in trouble, but he fought back well.
Siraj, fit from the all-weather, raced tight against the rail until pulled out for his challenge. He looked the winner when taking a narrowlead but was headed again on the line.
Majik is well treated back on turf, having recently been second off a 14lb higher mark on the all-weather. He was held up at the back of the field, but while he stayed on, he was never going to get there.
Adorata threatened briefly and was far from disgraced, but El Palmar was much too keen, restrained behind the winner against the rail.
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