Warts and All (6th Mar 2005)

I am trying to keep my powder dry in preparation for the Cheltenham festival so not much to report on the betting front. The only point worthy of mention is that I have upped my “point” stake to £5 to maximise winning returns but also to move away from the £2 “fun bets”. In the words of Mark Cotton

“Hint 83: Make Sure You Care About Every Bet” - One Hundred Hints for Better Betting.

This week the only races of interest are the two All-Weather 5 furlong sprints at Southwell given the middle to high draw bias.

Unfortunately Silver Birch was withdrawn from the Grand National and as a consequence my £10 anti-post bet with Ladbrokes has been added to their profits. My other bets (Hedgehunter – £10 @ 25's Betfair and Timbera - £10 @ 23's Betfair) are still active and I shall review the anti-post market post Cheltenham.

My own preparations for Cheltenham are progressing well with the arrival of “The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide -2005”. I await the further information from my handicap ratings service which should arrive on Wednesday. My plan next weekend is to limit punts to one race (Sandown - Sunderland’s Imperial Cup) and spend the rest of the weekend/Monday in preparation for Cheltenham.

I have again tweaked my ratings process to remove the numerical element in preference for a method advocated by Mark Cotton’s book mentioned above. I have adopted the basic approach to include trainer and jockey stats, speed ratings and race profiles and transcribe information from the form book along with my own comments onto a sheet of A4 paper. Using this method, I now find it easier to benchmark the merits of one horse against another in a systematic manner.

I have also made some minor tweaks to the look and feel of the web site and in the course of adding some new web links I came across a web site that has changed my perception in respect to 2year-old horse races.

“BRITISH 2YO RACING” is a site dedicated to juvenile flat racing in Britain. It contains some extremely comprehensive information in respect to 2 year olds and all for free! A fantastic reference I shall attempt to utilise this site during the course of the flat season.

Also in preparation for the flat season, I have also copied and collated last years Draw Bias reviews listed on the At The Races web site the trends spotting column. I have also puchased the following books:

Betting On Flat Handicaps By: Jon Gibby
The Tote Placepot Annual: Flat By: Malcolm Boyle