Newbury - 3:15 (5 Mar 2005)

Vodafone Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Class A)

Course Description
This left handed course presents a fair test for jumpers and is 'galloping' in nature. However courage, stamina and jumping ability are required when the going is soft or heavy. Passed winners of ‘chases and hurdles’ are often worth following, as are runners that have gone well previously at other ‘galloping’ tracks like Haydock Park, Worcester, Doncaster and Ayr .

Analysis

Selection: Supreme Prince (1pt win) Hand In Hand (1pt win)

This is a difficult race where a case can be made for a number of runners. In addition rain is predicted at Newbury so the scope of this race can change in an instant. I’ll sniff the air to determine prevailing weather conditions before placing any bets.

In reviewing the key trends last night, the key statistic that struck me is the dominance by trainers Pipe, Nicholls, Henderson and Hobbs this year at the Newbury track. No other trainers have managed to get close to this quartet with the exception of Venetia Williams and Nigel Twiston Davies and some bloke called J A B Old.

Given the trend that states that 8 year olds win the majority of handicap chases, the number of older horses entered also surprised me. Maybe the fact that the Cheltenham Festival is around the corner might have something to do with this.

The favourite stats don’t look too good at 27% for handicap chases however the chances of Buckby land cannot be easily dismissed. A front-runner, who is lightly raced this season, this horse is noted as one that jumps for fun and is open to improvement. However, Buckby lane won his previous race after a 413 absence from the track and the spectre of the dreaded ‘Bounce Factor’ rears its ugly head.

The ‘bounce factor’ relates to a horses second run following a long absence and us a real phenomenon. A bounce can be described as a negative reaction to a very strong performance. It happens to humans as well.

Often, but not always, when a horse runs a very strong race that results in a win and a lifetime best effort, that horse will react adversely to his top performance and run a poorer race in his next outing.

A horse can bounce off a strong 2nd or even 3rd, as long as it is close to a lifetime best. And it can bounce from an effort that is not a lifetime best, but a recent best.

So ignoring the chances of this Buckby Land, I will side with the Hobbs trained Supreme Prince. A previous course and distance winner he shapes as one that might be dropping back to a competitive handicap mark in addition to a drop back to his preferred distance. The Racing Post has the same opinion.

I also have a sneaking feeling that the handicapper may have given a glimmer of hope to Hand in Hand. 4th in the race last year he has only 1 wins in 12 starts however good recent performances indicate that he will put in a big run today.

Others under consideration where

Chauvinist: A Novice and I don’t like betting Novices first time in handicap events.
Whereareyouknow: Has gone up 11lbs after last win. Improvement unlikely
It Takes Time: Only 2 chase wins in career. 11 year-old
Mouseki: progressive but up in class and 11 year-old, should run well though.