The Aintree Grand National
I am very much looking forward to the Grand National this year! Similar to the Welsh Grand National there are plenty of historical statistics and trends available which can swing the advantage in favour of a mug punter? Like me? In the run up to this race I will use this thread to post my thoughts, news and comments.
It would be folly to think that I could select the winner of the most gruelling handicap in the world 8 weeks prior to the event, but as mentioned in an earlier post the Grand National weights have been published and now I can review the list of entrants with a view to placing a speculative anti-post bet.
At this point in time, the key factors/statistics to focus on are
1. Will the horse run on the day or has it been specifically trained for the race.
2. Is the horse expected to carry > 11st 5lbs.
3. is the horse aged six, seven or greater than twelve
4. Winning favourites are rare, but 11 out of the last 14 winners were in the top eight in the market. Horses priced at > 40/1 can be eliminated.
5. Eliminate any horse with plans to run in the Cheltenham festival
(1*) is obvious and there is no point in throwing your money away on a selection that wont even make it to the race
(2*) The stats indicate that a light weight is required to win this staying handicap. It is inevitable that horses will be withdrawn from the race and the handicapper will re-adjust the weights so I need to be careful not to dismiss entrants purly on weight allocated today. However, if the weights are readjusted the handicapper will only do so a few pounds either way therefore horses that are VERY high up in the weights can be eliminated.
(3*) This is purely based on historical records. Horses of these age groups have not won this race.
(4*) Need to be careful not to easily dismiss the chances of a horse based on price given that I’m playing in an anti post market and by definition the prices on offer are better that the prices on the day. However, I will focus my attention on the top 12 in the anti post market.
(5*) Due the competitive nature of the races and the fact that Cheltenham is three weeks before Aintree, there is not enough recovery time between the two events.
After my successful Anti Post punt on Silver Birch to win the Welsh Grand National, I have already secured 16/1 with Ladbrokes for this horse to win the Aintree event. The fact remains that if the Grand National is run on soft ground this horse would have an outstanding chance.
However history indicates that soft ground is unlikely and therefore I need to look elsewhere.
Anti Post Selections:
Timbera - £10 @ 23's Betfair
Hedgehunter – £10 @ 25's Betfair
Here is my synopsis of the other runners based on comments trainers, connections and current best odds (9/2/04)
Clan Royal: From the Jon Joe O’Neil yard. Unfortunately his stable is suffering from a mystery virus and therefore a word of caution for any of his runners. Nice racing weight however is predicted to be the market leader and therefore there is no value in the current price on offer. 13/1
Silver Birch: He's had a break and he will have a race about three weeks before Aintree. Already backed at 16/1 with Ladbrokes. They have cut the horse to 13/1. Best on offer 15/1
Grey Abbey: Top weight at 11st 12lbs. According to trainer requires soft ground. My gut feeling is that this horse will be withdrawn from the race in preference for a run in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. Easy to back at Ladbrokes at 21/1 and therefore they suspect as I do that this horse will not run.
Amberleigh House: 11st and now 13 years old. This might be one race too far. 21/1
Timbera: 10st 8lbs has had a fairly light campaign and was unfortunate to miss out on his main seasonal target at Aintree last year after scoping badly. He will have two runs before Aintree. He likes goodish ground. The 26/1 at Bet365 looks awfully tempting given that Ladbrokes are shorter at 21/1.
Strong Resolve: Low weight of 10st 3lb and might not make the final shortlist of 40. Scottish National might be long term aim? Running at Ayr on Saturday 12/2/04 as preparation for Aintree. Wait and see. 28/1
Lord Atterbury: eliminated as will run in point-to-points or hunter chases and he's running in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham. However, his main target is the National. Low weight of 10st 3lb and might not make the final shortlist of 40
Joly Bey: Might go to Cheltenham. Nice low weight of 10-7. Wait and see?? 26/1
Celestial Gold: eliminated, too high in the weights. 7 years old
Hedgehunter: Fell at final fence in last year’s event. He is been trained with the Grand National in mind. 26/1 again looks tempting.
Forest Gunner: 10st 4lbs so a bit low in the weights and might not get in. doubtful based on trainer comments. 26/1
Monty s Pass: 12 year old so eliminated also with 11st 3lb so slightly high in the weights.
One Knight: Trainer Philip Hobbs: "He's had a back problem and is an unlikely runner."
Labels: Principle Races
posted by Slipperytoad @ 2/09/2005 04:27:00 pm
8 comments
News Feed
8 Comments:
One of my £10 anti-post bets has crashed due to the withdrawal of Silver Birch. Reasons given below
BIRCH RULED OUT OF NATIONAL
Silver Birch, who was vying with Amberleigh House and Clan Royal for Grand National favouritism, will miss the John Smith's-sponsored showpiece at Aintree on April 9.
The eight-year-old, winner of his last three starts, including the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas, was as low as 12-1 with some firms.
But trainer Paul Nicholls told Teletext: "We noticed on Thursday night that his leg was not quite right and sadly he has heat in it, which has ended his campaign.
"We will scan him on Monday to confirm the extent, but unfortunately he won't run again this season.
Timbera is injured yet again and trainer Hughes has drawn stumps and retired him. Another anti-post bet bites the dust
I was tempted to lay off my bet on hedgehunter (backed at 25’s and current 10’s) but with only £10 invested anti post and very little profit to be gained by laying hedgehunter (compared to the return if he wins) the mug punter inside me is hoping for the big pay day.
Gr3 John Smith's Grand National Steeple Chase Handicap (A) 4m4f
Course Description
Aintree is best known for the Grand National and today’s event is also being run over this the long, flat, galloping, and triangular circuit of 2m 2f. The fences are stiff and test the jumping ability of contestants. In addition Aintree is infamous for the long 494 yard energy sapping run which tests the resolution and stamina of many runners
Analysis
Selection: Joly Bey, Just in Debt, Forest Gunner (1pts win) and Heros Collonges (1 pt e/w). Hedgehunter (anti-post)
Stats, Stats and more stats and boy there are plenty of them to go with the myriad of opinions on in this race. The one site that really does justice to this approach to punting on the Grand National is the Sporting life
I must also say that the racing post Grand National micro site is also excellent. Here are my own views on this race.
Firstly it is truly and open affair this year and shapes as one that might be a classic. Will the winner be the obvious choice Forest Gunner (“hell hath no fury that a women scorned” in reference to the well documented comments about women riders from Ginger McCain) or an outsider … there are strong vibes for MARCUS DU BERLAIS given his recent 3rd in the Irish Grand National?
With Hedgehunter taken care of at 25/1 anti-post and with doubts surrounding the market leaders, I can punt a non-obvious bigger priced “value” selection. The one that I fancy (and I agree with Tom Segals assessment) is Heros Collonges
All the ticks in the right boxes in terms of weight, BHB rating, age, class etc and during my analysis every which way I cut the data this horse came out toward the top of my ratings. In reviewing his race record, the racing post also noted that his trainer sees him as a Grand National horse as he can jump and stay all day. So, ignoring his latest run at Cheltenham, the 66/1 each-way (down to 4th place) on offer at Hill’s and Blue-SQ is awfully tempting for a mug punter like me.
The other horse is Joly Bey.
After the Grand National weights were published, I earmarked him as a potential bet but decided to wait and see. Again he is another one that meets the profile for a Grand National winner with notable exception of a Class A win to his name.
The Aintree Topham Trophy the previous year is considered to be a good pointer to the Grand National and by all accounts he had the race at his mercy when failing at the 15th fence. Well handicapped he is another one who can be forgiven (hopefully) for his latest run when the saddle slipped and I feel it is for that reason why he runs in the national today.
Savers
My normal mode of operation is to select two horses in the race but on this occasion I have decided to take advantage of the free bets on offer for new Internet accounts. My savers are
Forest Gunner: I have more doubts about his ability to say the distance than the Jockey. If he falls everyone or gets piped on the line everyone will unfairly blame Carrie for “a story” on Sunday. However subscribe to the notion that in certain circumstances a tactically astute jockey can make the difference, but in this case the horse on paper has an outstanding chance. Free bet with Blue-SQ £25 @ 10/1
Just In Debt: Ran second to my favourite horse Silver Birch in the Beecher Chase last year. I feel this run represents solid form and when I reviewed the video form from that race I was suitably impressed to place a free bet saver with Littlewoods Bet Direct @ 25/1
Hedgehunter was 1st @ odds of 7/1
Forest Gunner was 5th @ odds of 8/1
Heros Collonges was 8th @ odds of 66/1
Just In Debt was 9th @ odds of 33/1
Joly Bey was 14th @ odds of 16/1
Punters may have witnessed the winds of change yesterday as a number of statistics that were critical in picking the Grand National winner are now in doubt.
What about the stat that indicates that the winner has got to be carrying less that 11 stone? (Hedgehunter carried 11-1, Royal Auclair carried 11-10). What about the stat that indicates that the winner should have had a run within 42 days? (The unlucky Clan Royal was running a blinder when forced off the course by two loose horses after 115 days away from the track).
Hedgehunter made the handicapper look foolish and this was due to his trainer protecting his handicap and specifically training and targeting the horse for the race. Other trainers will note this approach and will follow suit and exclusively target their better horses at this race and I suspect next year the race will be littered with classier and relatively unexposed horses.
However I suspect that next year punters will still latch on to the old tried and tested selection methods (as I did) to select the winner of this race. Hopefully when I read this post race review in a years time if I’m correct then there should be lots of value on offer.
The other sea change is the dominance of the Irish. Their horses (and their jockeys) are cleaning up everything at the moment and they (Irish horses and trainers) and their methods will be closely followed from now on.
For the Grand National Anti post is definitely the way to go and an excellent result for my betting bank.
There is nothing like the Grand National to fuel the passion of fellow mug punters like myself. My local bookie was absolutely packed with once a year punters. The bookies would have you believe that they took a caning due to a winning favourite but my observations from the type of bets struck yesterday is that they collect an enormous amount of £5 e/w on 100-1 shots to ensure a profit on the day.
One of the most open renewals of the Grand National in years, with the entire field in the handicap proper. A dozen of the runners carried 11st and over, the much-feared ‘barrier' to success in this race, largely judged on the statistic that only 13 winners since the war had carried more than 11st, the last being Corbiere in 1983. Make that 14, though, after HEDGEHUNTER, carrying 11st 1lb, ran away from his rivals, headed by Royal Auclair, who bravely humped 11st 10lb into second place. Quite what might have happened had the keen-going Clan Royal, a slightly unlucky runner-up last year, not been put out of the race by a loose horse at Becher's on the second circuit when absolutely bombing along in front, nobody can say for sure, but his fate wasa cruel one by any standards.
Hedgehunter, a last-fence faller 12 months ago when a weary-looking third, was trained and placed impeccably with this race in mind again and everything worked out perfectly. Well placed throughout, he settled better thanlast year and was fortunate to avoid the melee at Becher's when Clan Royal was badly interfered with by two loose horses. Left in front at that point, which was probably plenty soon enough for Ruby Walsh's liking, Hedgehunter maintained his great rhythm,with his rider sitting motionless. Indeed, it wasn't until after the last, at around the elbow, that Walsh began to wind up his mount and the response was positive, with Hedgehunter galloping home in style for a thoroughly deserved triumph. Only a nine-year-old, and with all the credentials of a potential Aintree specialist, he could well come back next year and make a bold bid to become the first horse since the great Red Rum to gain back-to-back successes.
Although beaten by a comprehensive margin, Royal Auclair deserves plenty of praise for his wonderful effort, conceding weight to all but one of his rivals on rain-softened ground, which wasn't his ideal surface.
Simply Gifted came out best of those from the lower end of the handicap andran a race full of credit. He didn't quite get home, or at least, not quite as well as the runner-up and certainly not as well as the runaway winner. But this was a sterling effort in any case.
It Takes Time, given an admirable waiting ride, also ran a fine race, having every chance - along with probably as many as ten others - going to the third-last, but finding only one insufficient speed from that point.
Forest Gunner, with the eyes of the world focused on him as he attempted to createhistory for Carrie Ford, ran a smashing race until being outstayed, and was given a wonderful ride. In the end, though, the task proved beyond the brave pair, who nevertheless did themselves proud.
Nil Desperandum, a one-time high-class performer who had returned to winning form last time, also acquitted himself well and, although outpointed from the second-last, he sneaked into the prize-money in sixth.
Innox ran a huge race for a long way and looked a danger to all four out, but from the next fence the writing was on the wall and he failed to get home.
Heros Collonges gradually crept into contention and briefly looked like taking a hand until fading, a comment which also applied to Just In Debt, who looked to be going great guns four out before his stamina gave way. Amberleigh House, last year's winner in a more strongly run race, was never able to pick up the leaders. But, sure-footed as always, got around in his own time, as did Bindaree and Monty's Pass, the other former winners in the line-up.
A total of 21 horses completed the course, with Joly Bey failing to stay after getting into the thick of the action a mile from home, while Polar Red came firmly into contention, running above himself until finding his stamina stretched beyond its limit. Strong Resolve failed to recover from a bad mistake at the smallest fence on the course, the water jump, with a circuit still to race.
Take The Stand, who had run so wellin the Gold Cup, paid the price for taking one chance too many at The Chair. Double Honour was running well when finally getting rid of his jockey, but Colnel Rayburn, having shown up prominently, was eventually pulled up. As for Lord Atterbury, an excellent third last year, he got no further than the first fence, a fate symptomatic of this great race.
Guess What? The speculation has already started for next year
Racing Post Comments
Jonjo O'Neil revealed that Clan Royal would not run again this season - he is 6-1 ante-post favourirte for the Betfred Gold Cup on April 23 - and be kept to a hurdling campaign in order to protect his handicap mark over fences.
O’Neill said: “He's grand and was out in the field this morning bucking like a two-year-old, but he's finished for the season. We will wait for next year and try again.
“The ground is important to him and he wouldn't want it too soft, but I doubt he will go back there for any of the other races over the National fences,as I'll probably stick to hurdling before the big one.
“This season, he had just the one hurdles run when I intended to give him three.”
Post race comments from Hedgehunters trainer
Mullins also revealed that Hedgehunter’s preparation for the 2006 National may change from the approach adopted this season when the horse ran exclusively over hurdles prior to the publication of the National weights in February.
That exercise was to protect a handy mark in the handicap but after Saturday’s glorious triumph the official handicapper is likely to bump up Hedgehunter’s rating by a stone of more and so present Mullins with a different puzzle to solve.
“I’d imagine he is going to get a big hike from the handicapper,” said Mullins on Sunday as Hedgehunter paraded at Leopardstown races.
“That said, you can't win a second National unless you try. Hedgehunter clearly likes Aintree and while it will be harder for him next year I'll be surprised if the National won't again be his target.
“We will probably run him over hurdles like we did this season and also run him in a few chases.”
Then, Mullins added: “He did improve a lot from last year and maybe he is a late developer who will improve again between now and this time next year.”
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