Warts and All (9th January 2005)

My first weekly review and the objective will be to critique events from the previous week in the hope that I can correct any obviously mistakes.

This week has not been a good one as losses continue to mount. The situation has been made worse by the fact that my selections fail to bring home the bacon on the All Weather surface.

This is annoying given that a review of my betting records indicates that I should refrain from this area of punting. I cant help feeling that there is money to be made from betting on the sand however what I am up against is that there is a limited pool of horses that compete on the All Weather tracks from a narrow handicap band, I have a sense that there is a merry-go-round in terms of who will win on the day.

However, based on the following article (http://www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?t=3789) there is a definite bias over five furlongs. I will try and temper my enthusiasm for All Weather racing and limit my bets to this distance.

Over the jumps the situation is no better. In the big races on Saturday my naps ended up as cat food. Again I let myself down by breaking one of the golden rules of racing: ‘Look at every horse in the race, not just the one you've backed’.

For example Tolworth Hurdle and Ladbroke Handicap hurdles, my selections (though well handicapped) were clearly not suited to a front running style that is required to win a race at Sandown. Although these races are highly graded, hurdle races are notoriously difficult to predict especially in the 16 runner handicap sponsored by Ladbrokes.

On the subject of bookmaker sponsored races, I came across the following articles which indicate that I am a long way from losing my status as a mug punter (i.e. my selection in the Ladbroke Hurdle Monte Cinto should have be avoided like the warts on my skin!)

http://www.flatstats.co.uk/articles/bookie_sponsored_races.html
http://www.inside-edge-mag.co.uk/inside_edge/articles.php?id=1054.

Our friends across the counter should be respected and I have learnt another valuable lesson.

On a positive note, I am happy with the new staking plan as it affords me flexibility based on confidence. As confidence is low at the moment there is no point in increasing stakes until my strike rate improves and I can now adjust downwards without being constrained by level stakes of £5 for each selection.

I am off on a two week business trip from next weekend which will give me a chance to get away from racing for a while. Maybe my results will improve as a result.