Wolverhampton - 2:10, 2:40 (6 Jan 2005)

Course Description
Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to last the distance off a strong pace. Over shorter distances there seems to be a bias for low drawn horses.

Analysis
After spending significant time reading David Dickinson’s ‘How to Compile Your Own Handicap’ I am now a fan of handicap ratings and my personal observations have shown that a well handicapped runner will always give you a run for you money. However handicap ratings are not the Holy Grail and other factors need to be considered; for example the draw.

The draw stats over 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton seem to indicate that the majority of winners come from stalls 1-4 with the odd winner coming from stall 12/13. Pace analysis indicates that front runners should be opposed as they set things up for late finishers.

2:10 - Bet Direct On Sky Active Handicap Stakes Div 1 (E3)
The horses to consider are Gilded Cove (1), Rafters Music(2), Merdiff(3) and Ligne Deau (4). At predicted SP’s 6/1, 7/1, 7/1 and 8/1, backing all horses at level stakes gets a 2/1 return but lets see if we can eliminate one or two first.

Gilded Cove has taken well to both All Weather surfaces however he stumbled out of the stalls in his last race and on official ratings is unlikely to improve further. Rafters Music is dropping back to his preferred distance and has previously won off today’s official rating. Merdiff was very disappointing last time out however, that was an amateur riders event and the promising young apprentice P. Makin rides today. Ligne Deau is well rated.

The dark horse in this race is Greenwood. Not disadvantaged in stall 12, he is top rated and the form book suggests that connections have been avoiding his preferred distance (5 furlongs). At current odds of 10/1 are connections planning an assault on the bookmakers i.e. a 'touch'?

In the race I’ll stick with Greenwood and Ligne Deau as my two against the field at 1pt each.

2.40 - Bet Direct On Sky Active Handicap Stakes Div 2 (E3)
The race is not so straight forward. Three of the four horses drawn low (Tally, Shadow Jumper, Ace Club) have soon poor recent form. Tally seems to run better over fibresand. Shadow Jumper comes from National Hunt rules and has no All Weather form. Ace Club hasn’t won on sand or grass for ages. Glencairn Star drawn 3 has the best recent form, but this is a step up in class from his recent runs in Banded company.

The Racing Post’s nap Zoom Zoom (drawn 5) is well rated however he is a front runner and he could be picked off on the 3 furlong run-in to the finish line.

In this race I’ll side with the percentage call of Glencairn Star and Zoom Zoom as my well rated two against the field (1pt each)