Kempton - 2:10 (26 Dec 2004)
Gr1 Stan James King George Vi Steeple Chase (A) 3m
Course Description
Right handed, flat triangular circuit of 1m 5f. The fences are stiff but fair. The fact that the run-in is short at only 175 yards and the circuits turns are fairly tight for ‘chasers’ means that speedy front runners have a distinct advantage.
Analysis
With many high class chasers entered in the race, this year’s renewal of the King George is very difficult to call.
If you apply the following positive race profiles against each runner i.e.
- 7yo’s
- Finished first or second in a previous renewal
- Trained by Francois Doumen and to a lesser Henrietta Knight, Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson
- The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
There are no ‘stand out’ selections. So in this case I shall use Sherlock Holmes’s maxim:
'When you have excluded the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth!”
Applying the following negative trends/profiles to each runner which are
- An official rating under 160
- Failed to win a Class A/graded chase last time out
- Trained by Martin Pipe (has never trained a winner of the King George)
- Horses Stepping Up in Trip (with the exception of Edredon Bleu’s)
- Confirmed hold-up horses
- Preference for sound ground conditions.
- Unproven on right handed courses
AZERTYUIOP: Stepping up in trip – eliminated
BEST MATE: Entered in Lexus Chase at Leopardstown – eliminated
KICKING KING: Stepping up in trip – eliminated
TIUTCHEV: Trained by Martin Pipe – eliminated
EDREDON BLEU: Trainer has expressed concerns about soft ground – eliminated
FIRST GOLD FR: Preference for sounder surface – eliminated
KINGSCLIFF: Failed to win a Class A/graded chase last time out – eliminated
LE ROI MIGUEL: Rated under 160 – eliminated
SEEBALD: Rated under 160 and trained by Martin Pipe – eliminated
THEREALBANDIT: Rated under 160 and trained by Martin Pipe – eliminated
IMPEK: Rated under 160 – eliminated
CALLING BRAVE: Rated under 160 – eliminated
HOT SHOTS: Rated under 160 – eliminated
LORD SAM: Rated under 160 – eliminated
FONDMORT: Rated under 160 – eliminated
MURPHYS CARDINAL: Rated under 160 – eliminated
No help there Sherlock however, if you apply a rule that selects horses with the most positive and least negative traits then Calling Brave has to be given serious consideration.
Trained by Nicky Henderson he was 2nd last time out at Sandown over 3 miles. This race was after a 261 day absence and as noted in the form book “excellent reappearance against race fit rivals: would have gone very close without mistake & spot on in the King George”. A confirmed front-runner and proven ability at Kempton and no concerns about ground conditions, Calling Brave presents a solid each-way chance.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/23/2004 10:29:00 am
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1 Comments:
Calling Brave was pulled up.
Racing Post Comments
An enthralling renewal of a race with a superb history, featuring a clash between seasoned veterans, two of them past winners of the race, and young up-and-comers, the most interesting of whom had questions to answer at the trip. There was no let up in the pace, and realistically there were only two possible winners from the moment that KICKING KING was sent on past First Gold with more than a mile to run and stepped up the gallop still further. A huge gap after the first three and a winning time almost six seconds faster than that recorded by Ollie Magern in the Feltham confirm that this was a very high-class performance from Kicking King, and he can be rated a good six lengths better than the bare form, as that is the minimum margin that his last-fence blunder, which Barry Geraghty performed miracles to survive, cost him. It was gratifying to see the finish dominated by relative youngsters, and there is no question that a new star has arrived on the chasing scene. However, for the time being at least, there must be a doubt about him being as effective over the extra quarter mile of the Gold Cup.
Kicking King(1) had been a ‘nearly' horse over 2m - second in both the Supreme Novices' and the Arkle - but he has looked a different horse over further this season, notwithstanding his 3m defeat by Beef Or Salmon, which came on tacky ground and after he had raced a bit too keen. He settled well this time behind the pace set by First Gold and moved up stylishly going to the far turn, before changing the complexion of the race dramatically by making the best of his way home from early in the back straight and quickly having the vast majority of his rivals in serious trouble. Azertyuiop was the only one who could keep tabs on him, and he was clearly in trouble as they started round the home turn. Kicking King was ten lengths clear going to the last, but was steadied into it, barely took off, and landed so awkwardly that Geraghty looked almost sure to come off. He lost all momentum and gave Azertyuiop and the staying-on Kingscliff a chance to get to him, but he rallied when he got the stands' rail to race against and held on all out. The Gold Cup will plainly present an even stiffer examination of his stamina, and there would have to be a doubt about him running if the ground came up soft. But it seldom does nowadays, and with that final hill in mind one imagines he will be ridden much more conservatively than he was here. A head to head against Best Mate is a prospect to savour, but he certainly wasn't the only one to advertise his Gold Cup claims.
Kingscliff(2) emerges from the race with tremendous credit, and while Kicking King must have a question mark over his stamina still, Kingscliff will positively relish the extra distance. Indeed, he might well reverse the form. A good winner on his only two appearances at Cheltenham, including when hugely impressive in the Foxhunter over the Gold Cup distance, he had been off the track nearly a year since his first defeat at Haydock, when he returned with muscular problems. He looked a live Gold Cup prospect going into that race, and his credentials are even better now, as he ran a race full of promise here and made up a lot of ground over the last three fences, having turned for home a moderate third. He makes plenty of Gold Cup appeal at Ladbrokes' 10-1 and might not run again beforehand, as he goes so well fresh.
The Queen Mother winner Azertyuiop(3) added a fascinating dimension to the race. He was taking a huge step up in distance, but connections felt he would stay and he was rightly ridden as if his stamina was not going to be a problem. However, having gone after the winner and sat in his slipstream until four out, he came under pressure rounding the turn and wouldn't have had sight of the winner thereafter but for that last-fence blunder. He lost second to Kingscliff just after the last, and while he kept going well enough to finish a long way clear of the rest, there can be no question now that he is better at much shorter distances. He will have a bit of a break now before he reappears in the Game Spirit Chase and then defends his two-mile crown.
Le Roi Miguel looked a blatant non-stayer in this race last year, but he had impressed at Huntingdon and hopes were high that he would get the trip this time following a wind operation. He made a bit of headway on the far turn but never got close enough to get in a blow. His best form is still at shorter distances.
First Gold is pushing 12 now and has clearly deteriorated since his superb win here in 2000. Following a lacklustre run in the Hennessy he was seen to better effect following the reapplication of headgear and return to more forcing tactics, but it is hard to see where connections can find him realistic opportunities now. Honourable retirement might not be that far away, and that might also apply to last year's winner Edredon Bleu, who ought to have found this ground more to his liking than the sticky conditions that prevailed at Exeter on his reappearance but again didn't run much of a race.
Seebald was beaten a long way out and there remains a strong suspicion he was much flattered by his effort against Best Mate over a similar trip at Exeter.
There were no such worries about stablemate Therealbandit at the trip, and he was one of the disappointments of the race in a poor seventh place. Connections refused to blame the right-handed course, but it would be no surprise to see him bounce back to form and run very much better at Cheltenham, which suits him so well.
Fondmort, fourth here last year, was always among the backmarkers this time. He is better at shorter distances, but still ought to have run better.
Hot Shots, out of his depth and one of the less likely stayers, ran as one would expect. He had no realistic chance.
Last year's second Tiutchev made a mistake at the first in the straight first time out and was soon struggling. He was pulled up on the far turn and the vet reported that he was lame on his left fore. When he made his mistake he cannoned into Lord Sam, who was being kept wide and shown plenty of daylight. Lord Sam was never really going afterwards and was another who was eventually pulled up. He could do with his sights lowering for a confidence booster, if one could be found.
Calling Brave, who had been a good second in the Sandown race in which Lord Sam was third, ran no race and connections were mystified
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