Wolverhampton - 2:10 (14 Dec 2004)
Littlewoods Bet Direct Handicap (D2) (3yo+,0-92) 1m4f
Course Description
Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to last the distance off a strong pace
Analysis
This race can be short listed to three runners, Modaffa, Merrymaker and Greenwich Meantime
Modaffaa was an impressive winner last time out on his flat debut at Lingfield. An impressive win over National Hunt rules at Ludlow, he is reportedly set for a run in the Chester Cup next year. Regardless of the outcome of today’s race, I have added him to my notebook as a horse to follow. My limited observations have indicated that horses that spend the winter racing on All Weather surfaces are often underrated by the handicapper when returning to the flat. In addition they have the advantage of fitness.
Today, the draw might be the outdoing of Modaffa (drawn 11). For 1m4f, the stalls are positioned near a bend and for horses drawn out wide; Jockeys need to either ride their mounts prominently and waist valuable energy to obtain a decent position or race n horses deep around the bend and loose valuable ground. Another statistic which counts against Modaffa is the poor record of maiden winners who are market favourites in their first handicaps.
In terms of the draw, the key stalls are those drawn middle. Merrymaker (drawn 5) has taken to the surface at Wolverhampton with two wins against his name. The same can be said about Greenwich Meantime. Suited to the tight turns of Wolverhampton, he is noted in the form book as one to follow if dropped back to 1m4f (which he does today).
A slight preference for Merrymaker given that he drops down in class for this race however, I shall take the conservative route and also back Greenwich Meantime as my two against the field.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/13/2004 11:12:00 pm
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Merry maker finished 3rd @ odds of 2/1
Non-Runner: Greenwich Meantime
What a disappointing run by Merrymaker. Slow from the starting stalls, the horse raced as if he wasn’t interested despite the efforts of the jockey. Horses are not machines eh!
Racing Post Comments
This handicap lost a lot of its interest due to the withdrawals of the unbeaten Modaffaa and the in-form Greenwich Meantime. It was run at just a modest gallop and the form is worth treating with caution as a result.
BLAZE OF COLOUR(1), making her all-weather debut and having her first run for current connections, was handy throughout and showed a good attitude when asked to go and win her race at the top of the straight. She can be rated value for further, always looks to give her best and should continue to pay her way in this sphere during the winter.
Afadan did not have the race run to suit and got going all too late in the day, but still posted a very pleasing return to action. Although his next run will reveal more, this was his most enthusiastic effort for some time and he has slipped back to a winning mark, so could be able to go one better on this surface.
Merrymaker raced lazily through the early stages and could not quicken under pressure when it mattered late on. He came into this unbeaten on the new surface and is happiest around this circuit, but does look a little high in the weights now.
Post a Comment
<< Home