Southwell - 2:20 (14 Dec 2004)
Littlewoods Bet Direct Handicap (D2) (3yo+,0-92) 5f
Course Description
The All Weather fibresand surface at Southwell is much slower than the polytrack used at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and places great demands on stamina. The course also favours horses that like to race prominently.
Analysis
As mentioned previously a key rule of thumb in sprint events is that the outcome is often dictated by the position of the pace/front runners. However, after reviewing my selection method for my previous attempt over 5 furlongs at Southwell (7/12/04), the draw bias is another factor over this distance.
Over 5 furlongs, the pole positions are 7,1, 2, 9 and 11 (in preference order). Having a good draw is only one part of the equation. Having the ability to take advantage of a good draw is another.
With this in mind, Devils Bite (drawn 7) has performed poorly on the All weather surface (pulled up twice) and looks out of his depth in this company
Tag Team (drawn 1) is a good performer at Lingfield (polytrack). He is having his first run the fibresand and until he is proven on this surface I shall pass him by on this occasion.
All Just A Lord’s (drawn 2) wins have been over 5 furlongs. Proven on all three All Weather courses and surfaces, he was 8th last time in a class C event over course and distance 7 days ago. That run was after a 103 day absence from the track therefore he should improve today.
Romany Nights (drawn 9) is a frustrating type that has shown ability but is on a long loosing streak. However his trainer (Gay Kelleway) purchased the horse privately from his previous trainer as she felt that she could bring out the best in him. So far, Romany Nights has had 4 runs under the ownership of Ms Kelleway and has not performed well thus far. He recently finished 6th and runs again today against Magic Glade on better terms (7lbs) and Just A Lord. My feeling is that this race is his last chance saloon.
Far Note (drawn 11) is another proven All Weather performer and has shown a preference for fibresand and Southwell. However on this occasion he may find himself outclassed.
In competitive handicap, my two against the field are Just A Lord and Romany Nights
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/13/2004 10:57:00 pm
1 comments
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1 Comments:
Just A Lord finished 3rd @ odds of 10/1
Romany Nights finished 5th @ odds of 6/1
Even though he did not have a good draw Magic Glade romped home. Magic Glade was technically running off a lower weight than everyone else and it showed in this contest.
Having recently purchased from ebay (£2) and read “How to Compile Your Own Handicap” from Raceform’s ex private handicapper David Dickinson I now have a better understanding of how the handicapper allocates weights and official BHB ratings and hopefully I can include these factors into calculations along with Speed ratings, draw and Pace
Racing Post Comments
Quite an interesting sprint was won well by MAGIC GLADE(1), who is rated 90 on the grass, but has been plagued with blood vessel problems. However, he has done well since joining Roy Brotherton, and having taken this well, can win again on the all-weather.
Justalord, who wasn't disgraced but seems high enough in the weights now
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