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Wednesday, December 08, 2004

Ludlow - 2:40 (9 Dec 2004)

Viscount Boyne Memorial Challenge Trophy A Handicap Steeple Chase (D ) 3m3f110y

Course Description

A right handed course with stiff fences and a long run-in of 200 yards. Previous course and distance runners that are highly rated on the stopwatch therefore the emphasis is on speed rather than stamina.

Analysis
I have missed out on Inca Trail’s last two wins and I do not intend to miss out again today! Yes is has gone up 7lbs for his recent win at Wincanton however if you believe the words of the Racing Post spotlight writer

Course winner over 3m last month, has had his resolution questioned but sauntered to victory at Wincanton last week; 3lb ahead of the handicapper even under penalty and will take some stopping if everything goes his way; brother to Best Mate and should stay this longer trip.”

He should romp home. In addition I ignore weight in my selections and he also tops speed ratings. The only danger is Harlov but I think the fact that the trainer has decided to travel 225 miles for this race is an act of desperation rather than a tip. I might be proved wrong (again!)

1 Comments:

At Friday, December 10, 2004 2:57:00 pm, Blogger Slipperytoad said...

Inca Trail was placed 6th @ 2/1

Ok I give in! Weight does matter under certain circumstances i.e. top weight in soft going. From now on I will factor weight into my selection methods

Racing Post Comments

Inca Trail was 3lb lower than in future handicaps under his penalty for an easy Wincanton success, but did not jump that fluently and never looked to be going that well. He is better than this and was reported to have been unsuited by the slow early pace.

 

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