Wincanton - 1:40 (2 Dec 2004)
Silver Buck Handicap Chase (Class D) 3m1½f
Course Description
A right-handed galloping track with stiff/testing fences. Front runners often poach leads that are unassailable on the short run-in from the last fence.
Analysis
Inca Trail, Even More, and Bathwick Annie make the shortlist with the selection going to Even More.
As discussed in a previous post, this is Paul Nicholls back yard. He has an impressive 24% strike rate at his track and therefore Inca Trail has to be respected however, the form book suggests that a shorter trip will suit. Bathwick Annie has the best profile with a preference for right handed tracks and front running ability. The main danger to Even More, he is progressing from Novice Chases and is dropped in class for this race. The only doubt is that he is unproved over 3m.
Even More is a consistent sort. He hacked up by 8 lengths last time out and was noted as appreciating the step up 3m 3f. A good weigh carrier, he has gone up 7lbs for that win, but based on writings of Nick Mordin (Betting for a Living), I ignore weight when making assessing the ability of each horse.
A trappy event, Even More should add 'even more' money to the betting bank
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/01/2004 09:49:00 pm
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Racing Post Comments
Question marks over most of these in this staying handicap chase but INCA TRAIL belied any doubts about his resolution by scoring on the bridle. However, it is anybody's guess what the outcome would have been if he had had to be asked any serious questions as he has tended to shirk the issue in the past. If given the benefit of the doubt on this occasion, he is the type who can rack up more successes and a £20,000 handicap chase at Ludlow next week could be his next appearance.
Carryonharry, penalised for his Ludlow win and due to rise another pound from the weekend, looked a sitting duck when blundering 3 out and he had no chance with the winner from that point. He is always vulnerable conceding weight all round.
Garolsa only stays on at the one pace and the handicapper has him just about right.
Walter's Destiny raced from well out of the handicap and has not won for three years.
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