Newbury - 2:40 (27 Nov 2004)
Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m 2 1/2 f
Course Description
This left handed course presents a fair test for jumpers and is 'galloping' in nature. However courage, stamina and jumping ability are required when the going is soft or heavy.
Race Description
In researching the previous winners, the stats indicate that this race is often won by a 7,8,9 year olds that are weighted in the 10 stone region. The race is also dominated by the top trainers/yards.
Analysis
Anti-post betting is the act of wagering on an event well in advance of it taking palace and has potential for lots of value provided that the selection actually gets to the start of the race.
As Newbury is a principle meeting I had already decided to research this race well in advance of the weekend to ensure I extract every ounce of value on offer (and to save time on Saturday as I will be busy with other aspects of my life i.e. recovering from a Friday night out with my mates).
Amazingly given the stats and form book above I've reduced the field down to two contenders; Ballycassidy and Royal Auclair. As its Wednesday, I dont have the advantage of speed ratings but, given that Ballycassidy prefers a sounder surface and the going at Newbury is predicted as being Good to Soft, I have backed Royal Auclair at 8/1 to land my first Anti Post success and my second win backing this horse. I also have the confidence of the trainer
[Racing Post Comments]
"He worked really well this morning and going left-handed will be much better for him," Nicholls told At The Races.
It's a competitive race but he must be one of the leading players.
"I rode the winner of the Hennessy twice and we got lucky to win it last year with Strong Flow, so it would be nice to win it twice as a trainer as well."
Nicholls revealed that an operation to cure a breathing problem has helped Royal Auclair recapture his best form.
"He was second to Grey Abbey at Doncaster last year and was just beaten by Puntal in the Betfred Gold Cup," Nicholls went on.
"He was struggling with his breathing and showed the benefit of an operation during the summer when he won the other day at Wincanton."
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/24/2004 09:08:00 pm
4 comments
News Feed
4 Comments:
Other punters have opposing views on this race.
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=15&topic=6559
Ballycassidy was withdrawn from the race before the final declarations
The morning of the race and the momentum is building and the nerves are jangling!
Now final speed ratings are available, Celestial Gold heads the rankings, with Ollie Magern, Gunther McBride taking place honours. Royal Auclair is ranked 4th. At current odds of 5/2 Celestial Gold is looking poor value and as discussed earlier this race is usually won by well weighted 7,8,9 year olds which eliminates Celestial Gold and Ollie Magern. Gunther McBride was beaten by 2 lengths by Royal Auclair last time out.
I am still keeping the faith in Royal Auclair. But the big danger is Celestial Gold.
Tom Segal (Pricewise) and I clash again in this race. His selection is Nil Desperandum who is also well fancied by members of the Racing Forum. However in reviewing the form book he was last in a four runner Novices Chase at Punchestown 214 days ago. Maybe Tom is smarting after last weekends beating by yours truly and has decided to pull an ace from his sleeve
I and others who opposed Celestial Gold at 9/4 have egg on our face. From the comments below he ran a fantastic race and deserved to win.
Racing Post Comments
A typical Hennessy in most departments but certainly not in class, especially with top weight First Gold failing to run his race, which effectively left Royal Auclair, already off his highest mark of 150, setting the standard as a 145-rated winner.
Despite the 'good to soft' in the chase course official description, the standard fast pace resulted in CELESTIAL GOLD(1) being only just over three seconds outside the course record set at a March meeting by Topsham Bay 11 years ago. He also became just the third horse to complete the big-race double of adding this to his Paddy Power Gold Cup success, Bright Highway being the last in 1980 after Bachelors Hall.
Celestial Gold and Ollie Magern have almost reproduced their Paddy Power form to the poundon revised terms and while both are young and progressive chasers, bookmaker reaction in shortening him up for the Gold Cup was an overreaction on the literal form, which leaves him well short of Grade 1 standard.
The winner has left behind last year's form, having finished tailed off on this day last year behind Ballycassidy, and rising seven can continue to progress but will need to, although the handicapper can hardly hit him hard for this win. He has the bonusprint.com Gold Cup entry and could make history in completing the big-race hat-trick to confirm his versatility.
Ollie Magern deserves plenty of credit as he took a strong hold vying with three others for the early lead at a fast pace and was novicey at some of his fences. That he could still travel as well as anything into the straight and keep battling to the line suggests further big-race success. The problem with his SunAlliance Chase chances is that stablemate Fundamentalist is race favourite.
Royal Auclair, revitalisedby the operation on his breathing close season, nearly defied his highest mark and looks back to the level that won him the Cathcart in 2002 and saw him touched off in what is now the Betfred Gold Cup.
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