Aintree - 2:45 (21 Nov 2004)
totesport Becher Handicap Chase (Class B) (5yo+) 3m3f
Analysis
Slipperytoad Verses Pricewise (Part 2)
Again another principle meeting where Tom and I lock horns again. After yesterdays selection (Asparagus) came 2nd and Tom selection (Rheindross) coming 10th, I have a slight points advantage. Today Tom's selection is Artic Jack.
After reviewing yesterdays race the key factor for Forest Gunner's win was his familiarity with the quirky Aintree fences and his front running style. The other factor was Forest Gunners stamina and proven ability over the distance.
Horses, which make my short list, can be divided into two categories. Old stagers verses young pretenders.
In the old-stager corner, we have Amberleigh House and Ardent Scout. Both are proven over this track with Amberleigh House taking last years Grand National and Ardent Scout placed 7th. Both were placed 2nd and 3rd in this event last year. Amberleigh House has been well prepared for today’s race but faces a stiff task with top weight and therefore is opposed. Ardent Scout was just 2nd last time out at Carlisle and is weighted to run a good race today.
In the 'young pretender corner' we have Double Honour, Jungle Jinks and Silver Birch. Double Honour is 2nd on speed ratings but had a disappointing run last time out at Wincanton and noted in the formbook as 'running in snatches'. If that run can be forgiven then he should run well today. Jungle Jinks won last time out at Haydock his profile seems to indicate that he prefers small fields. Silver Birch from the P Nicholls yard is also a winner last time out and is noted as an old fashioned staying type who should progress. He also leads on speed ratings. His trainer commented that
[Courtesy of the Racing Post]
'Silver Birch ran well at Newton Abbot giving an awful lot of weight away and Ruby [Walsh] got off him and said he'd be a nice horse around Aintree, so that's what we are doing.'
In tricky race I shall oppose Tom Segal selection with Silver Birch with the main danger coming from Ardent Scout.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/21/2004 01:16:00 pm
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Final score: Slippery Toad(1.5), Pricewise(0).
Sliver Birch wins at odds of 4/1.
Racing Post Analysis
An interesting renewal of this valuable event run over the National fences. Although the pace was fair, there were nine within six lengths going to the second last, though in the end the first two pulled clear.
SILVER BIRCH(1), who was having only his seventh start over fences, and his first on the track, jumped really well, his only mistake coming at the water. In front with nearly a circuit to go, he battled on in fine style after the last. Bred to stay well, he acts well on soft ground and is clearly a live National contender though fast ground in April wouldn't be ideal for him.
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