Chepstow - 2:45 (24 Nov 2004)
KPMG Handicap Hurdle (Class D) (4yo+,0-125) 3m
Analysis
As part of my assault on the Placepot, I am always on the look out for races where I feel I have an edge. I would normally stay away from Handicap Hurdles, but in this case there are a numbers of factors that allow me to whittle down the field to a few contenders.
Firstly the race is competitive and also includes a media 'hype' horse, namely; Be My Royal. The going at Chepstow is predicted as being Soft/Heavy in places. As identified in the course analysis, racing around Chepstow is a bit of a stamina test, especially with cut in the ground. At 3 miles and a number of runners unproven over this distance, there are enough angles that can be exploited.
Back to the hype of Be My Royal. This horse is the class act in the field with some of the media hacks making him their NAP selection. However, he has suffered from tendon problems and has been away from the track for 725 days. Given the testing conditions I have concerns about his fitness. If he wins then this will be a remarkable performance and I for one will note future runners trained by Tom George.
Given the profile of the track and going conditions, I have identified three runners that should (if I'm correct) contest place honours. Namely, Kiwi Babe, Janbre and top weight Jonanaud.
Paul Nicholls has an excellent record at Chepstow therefore Kiwi Babe is well respected. A winner last time out over soft ground he should run well today. However, he is unproven over 3 miles. Janbre has placed in his last three outings (and is a Placepot selection). Noted as a 'thorough stayer' in the formbook and proven over soft going, his credentials have to be respected. Jonanaud (another Placepot selection) runs extremely well at Chepstow with 2 wins in testing conditions. He has 'mud lark' written all over his form after recently winning in heavy conditions over 2m5f at Towchester. Unproven over 3 miles, he was noted in the formbook as 'ridden out' (which is another way of saying that he can go further). Therefore, I have no concerns about his ability to go the distance in this contest.
I plan to be ultra conservative given that it is a handicap hurdle so I have backed (off course on betfair and near the off on course via my mate) both Janbre and Jonanaud.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 11/24/2004 07:08:00 am
1 comments
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1 Comments:
Confession time! I should paid more attention when reading the chapter on ‘Making Selections’ in Mark Cottons Book ‘One Hundred Hints For Better Betting’. Quote
“The fact that we have a fancy for a horse should lead us to be extra rigorous about investigating its chance. Often it is tempting to assume we know all about the horse and it is this over confidence, which may lead us to overlook the vital flaw that later cost it the race” (Hint 14: Study each horse objectively and in fixed sequence)
Like a mug I ignored that fact that my fancy Jonanaud (top weight) was trying to lump 11st 4lbs around the soft going, stamina sapping conditions of Chepstow. I often ignore weight during race analysis but under these conditions, I should have been extra vigilant of this fact. I also ignored the fact that Victory Gunner was proven over going and distance and therefore should have been in my final shortlist. Mug!
Racing Post Comments
VICTORY GUNNER(1) had run well at Uttoxeter on his previous start but had not shone at this track in the past. It was a different story on this occasion; however, as he stayed on well up the straight to record his third win over hurdles. Whether he can cope with a rise in the handicap remains to be seen, though.
Ice Crystal looked to have been beaten off turning into the straight but finished with a rare rattle to capture second place. He clearly stays three miles well.
The interesting performance with a view to the future was that of Be My Royal. It was thought that he had sustained a career-ending tendon injury when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup in 2002 in controversial circumstances, so the fact that he is back racing at all is a tribute to his new owner, who treated him with micro-current therapy. This was a more than pleasing reappearance effort and his return to chasing is eagerly anticipated - he has the Welsh National as a possible target.
Janbre, visored for the first time on his handicap debut, kept on from off the pace without threatening the principals. He stays forever.
These conditions should have suited Jonanaud but he was disappointing. The Handicapper looks to have his measure for the time being.
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