Sandown - 3:05 (4 Dec 2004)
William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Class A) (Listed Race) 4yo+ - 2m
Course Description
An oval right handed, slightly undulating track with an uphill finish. The course presents severe test of a horses jumping ability and favors front runners who can see out the trip.
Analysis
I am a fan of statistics and based on a recommendation from the Racing Forum, I purchased 'The National Hunt Season Betting Guide 2004-2005'. Published by Weatherbys, (http://www.weatherbys-group.com/) who are contracted by the British Horseracing Board to provide administration services, the book lists all historical trends for the top National Hunt fixtures of the season.
Based on their treads analysis the short listed horses are Kingston Town, Monte Cinto and Atahuelpa.
On form book analysis, the favourite Manx Royal can be opposed. History shows that all Martin Pipes horses which started favourite at a short price have all been beaten. Most telling is that Manx Royal is unproven on soft going.
Kingstons Town is Martin Pipe’s second string and is given preference based on statistical analysis and his win last time out in heavy conditions. At current prices, he presents a solid each-way option
Another horse that should run well is Monte Cinto. Highly rated and from the in form Paul Nicholls yard, he is on a three timer. With conditions to suit, he should also make the frame
In a 21 runner competitive event, I have backed both Kingston Town and Monte Cinto with slight preference given to Monte Cinto (£3) in my £5 split stakes bet.
Stop Press: I have also noted that Pricewise (Tom Segal) has also selected Monte Cinto. Maybe great minds think alike or we both read the same publications.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/04/2004 08:42:00 am
1 comments
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1 Comments:
Monte Cinto won at odds of 8/1
Racing Post Comments
What looked a wide-open handicap hurdle was effectively a two-horse race from the second last, where MONTE CINTO(1) and Winsley started to draw clear. Both of them came from well off the pace, but while Winsley made his ground rapidly from towards the rear, racing up the stands' side, Monte Cinto arrived on the scene full of running, clearly travelling even better. There was nothing in it still at the last, but Ruby Walsh was just waiting and waiting and had yet to go for Monte Cito. Once he did, the four-year-old was always the stronger on the run-in. Monte Cinto has really come to himself now after taking time to acclimatise when he first arrived from France, and he was completing a hat-trick here. On this evidence he might well cope with another significant rise, and the Ladbroke Hurdle, moved here from Ascot, is likely to be next on the agenda.
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