Kempton - 1:00 (26 Dec 2004)
Gr1 Stan James Feltham Novices' Steeple Chase (A) 3m
Course Description
Right handed, flat triangular circuit of 1m 5f. The fences are stiff but fair. The fact that the run-in is short at only 175 yards and the circuits turns are fairly tight for ‘chasers’ means that speedy front runners have a distinct advantage.
Analysis
Firstly if the statistics are to be believed then Ollie Magern’s chances have been scuppered by the poor record of Nigel Twiston Davies in this race. His five runners in the last ten renewals have only completed the course twice with both of them well beaten.
Another key statistic for this race is that 60% winners are unrated by the BHB. Coupled with a fantastic trainer record in this race of François Doumens, the chances of Lami cannot be ignored as noted by the form book in his recent win in Class A company at Lingfield (a key race for this event)
Fine run under jt top weight, can rate higher for a yard that has to feared on Brit raids.
If we give preference to front runners then the chances of Control Man, You’re a Gasman, and Backbeat have to be considered. However, You’re a Gasman (preference for left handed tracks) and Backbeat (no wins at class B level) can be eliminated given the positive statistic for unrated runners above; which leaves Control Man who is noted in the form book as one to follow after hos recent Cheltenham win.
In this race Lami and Control Man are my two against the field
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/23/2004 09:25:00 pm
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L'Ami Fell and Control Man unseated rider
Racing Post Comments
The most competitive novice chase of the season so far, and a thrilling finish to an eventful race. There were only six left through the last mile and they were tightly grouped until the third-last.
OLLIE MAGERN(1) stood out on his handicap form at Cheltenham and Newbury, races from which he emerged much the same horse as Celestial Gold both times when the difference in the weights is taken into account, but he had a real fight on his hands here and was headed on the run-in before a game rally got him back up close home. There were worries beforehand about his effectiveness on this ground (all of his eight wins had been on good or quicker) and going right-handed (six of his previous wins, and his good handicap defeats, were left-handed), but he copedwell with the ground and there was only the slightest tendency to jump left.
He didn't jump quite as well as he has done in the past and lost a bit of momentum when getting in close to the last, but it was the lack of pace as much as anything that wasprobably responsible for his winning so narrowly - the Paddy Power and Hennessy confirmed his liking for a strong gallop - and Carl Llewellyn said afterwards that he needed more company and argued that if Trabolgan had got to him sooner he would have wonmore decisively. His SunAlliance credentials look as good as ever - at this stage his stablemate Fundamentalist is his main rival on form - but it's worth bearing in mind a strong historical negative, in that no winner of this race has gone on to score at Cheltenham in the 30-odd years it has been going.
Trabolgan excelled himself in second, and the step up to 3m clearly suited him admirably. What makes his effort all the more praiseworthy is that he was badly hampered in the melee that followed L'Ami's fall and then made quite a bad mistake at the third-last. He looked the winner when edging narrowly ahead on the short run-in before being just touched off, and while the winner appeared to run a bit below his classy handicap form, this was a cracking effort. As it was only his second run over fences, he is entitled to have a fair bit of improvement in him.
Quazar had the best hurdles form of these, but he is from a stable suffering health problems and he does not look a natural over fences.Stamina is his main problem however, as he does not look a true three-miler and after going second briefly after the third-last he tired badly from two out and didn't get home.
Distant Thunder has yet to win over fences, but he has had a series ofstiff tasks and did nothing wrong once again. He is sure to win when his sights are lowered a little.
Patches is much improved since his wind operation but this was a big step up in class after his three wins at Wincanton, only the most recent of which had been over fences. He was bang there approaching straight but then got outpaced. This was a very solid effort nevertheless.
Backbeat has had his problems but has quickly developed into an above-average novice. He was running a big race when he blundered through the third-last, and while his rider recovered from that mistake there was no avoiding the consequences of an even more shocking mistake at the next, when back in fifth place and clearly beaten, but still not far away. One has to hope that his confidence doesn't suffer.
L'Ami made much of the running but his jumping wasn't convincing and he paid the price just after halfway, taking with him Your A Gassman, who was going well but had no chance of avoiding him.
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