Kempton - 1.35 (26 Dec 2004)
Gr1 Stan James Christmas Hurdle Race (A) 2m
Course Description
Right handed, flat triangular circuit of 1m 5f. The fences are stiff but fair. The fact that the run-in is short at only 175 yards and the circuits turns are fairly tight for ‘chasers’ means that speedy front runners have a distinct advantage
Analysis
Given the race profiles and trends for this race
- 5yo’s account for 29% of all races
- The winner of the fighting fifth or Bula Hurdle
- Top two in the market
- Horses priced evens to 2/1 have the best record winning 46% of races
- Last time out winners have a good follow up record.
Look no further and lump on Harchibald who has all the ticks in relevant boxes
posted by Slipperytoad @ 12/23/2004 10:08:00 pm
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1 Comments:
Harchibald wins @ odds of 8/11
Racing Post Comments
A true test and formbook consolidation of the changing Champion Hurdle pecking order, which saw HARCHIBALD harden as favourite with an unimpeachable hat-trick compiled against many of the leading protagonists, with the notable exception of last year's winner Hardy Eustace.
Harchibald, a strapping five-year-old, looks to be coming of age, suggesting there could still be more improvement to come - on official figures he could be adjudged to have found another 9-10lb here, having already risen a stone for his two previous wins. For such a big horse he has the necessary speed and while there looks to be a big chink in his armour on soft ground, that is not usually a consideration for the Cheltenham Festival.
It is no surprise he has shortened as favourite, although there is an obvious disparity in his price in comparison to Back In Front, who is double his price. Paddy Power only shaved Harchibald to 4-1 (from 9-2) while Corals at 7-2 and Hills at 3-1 were more impressed. The latter reasoned therewas a lack of strength in depth in the race, but if Coral could shave Rooster Booster to 8-1 (from 12), then Back In Front should not have remained at 8-1 on his Bula form - and he was coming back off a long layoff when beaten by the race-fitter Harchibald early this season.
The surprise of the race was the repeat Bula front-running tactics on Rooster Booster, who was allowed a 25-length lead down the back straight and on timings was still nearly 20 lengths clear around the home turn as Harchibald was finally asked to improve.
What was most impressive about Harchibald was the way he cut the advantage from there, timed at 12 lengths two out and just over four at the last before he was only cajoled past Rooster Booster without recourse to the whip. There was a feeling that there might not have been much more to come but that is hardly surprising with the effort he had produced up the straight against a top rival who conceded no ground to the rest of the pack in defeat.
Rooster Booster, officially 11 in four days, ran his usual game race and there is no reason to think he does not remain the benchmark for the Champion Hurdle, although it is becoming apparent that he will be playing for a minor role.
Perouse upholds the form on officialfigures, beaten a shade further by the winner than in the Fighting Fifth, and confirming that as a Grade 2 winner he is devilishly hard to place to advantage as he is short of this level.
Arcalis was thrown in at the deep end as a novice here and,while a top handicapper on the Flat, he could not make an impression. However, he was far from disgraced in finishing alongside 140-plus rated rivals. This novice has age on his side and he showed enough here to warrant serious respect for Graded novice races.
Impek, who along with Rooster Booster got the drop on his rivals, looked to enjoy this change from competitive handicap chases and was far from disgraced.
Castleshane, who was expected to get an easy lead, still ran up to his form on official figures.
Blue Canyon was reported to have jumped left throughout.
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