Wolverhampton - 4:00, 4:30 (10 Jan 2005)
Course Description
Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. Over shorter distances there seems to be a bias for low drawn horses. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to stay the distance off a string pace
Analysis
As a rule Monday is a no bet day, but given that there are two 5 furlong sprints at Wolverhampton its time for a small punt. The stats for this race show a 22% strike rate for favourites and such designated horses will of course be eliminated from consideration
4:00 - Bet Direct On At The Races Interactive Handicap (Div I) (F4)
From the well draw horses I shall select Ice Diamond and On The Trail. Ice Diamond drops back to sprint distances so there will be no issues with him making very yard of the trip and the Brisbourne/Ahern combination should be in the mixup (1pt win). On The Trail was unplaced last time but that was on Fibresand and his record on the polytrack surface is much better (1 pt win)
4:30 - Bet Direct On At The Races Interactive Handicap (Div II) (F4)
This is a difficult race and some leaps of faith are required. The first one is that the well handicapped and well drawn Noble Mount can step up from Banded grade and that Chatshow can win from stall 5. The other horses in this race don’t come into consideration.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 1/09/2005 10:59:00 pm
2 comments
News Feed
2 Comments:
4:00
Ice Diamond was palced 3rd at odds of 11/4. On The Trail was a non-runner
The draw bias does it again. The first three home were drawn 4,5,1 respectively. Pitty my selection was undone by the favourite.
Racing Post Comments
WHINHILL HOUSE(1) continues to the upgrade, and produced his best performance to date to defy top weight in this fair contest.
There did not look to be a lot left in the tank at the finish, but the gelding - who has been kept busy of late - could well have further improvement in him.
Ace Club, whose only win to date came in the summer of 2003, ran easily his best race on the all-weather and he could be coming to hand.
Iced Diamond, stepping back from 7f, did his chances no good at all by missing the break. In the circumstances, he did well to finish so close and, if he can break better, then he could pick up a little race at this trip.
4:30
Noble Mount came 8th at odds of 5/1
Chatshow came 3rd at odds of 5/2
This race was run over 6 furlongs and not 5f where a low bias exsists. Need to remember that next time!!!!
Racing Post Comments
HEADLAND(1) is not easy to catch right, but he wins with his turn on the sand, and confirmed his liking for this track as he maintained a good gallop all the way to repel allcomers.
Ballybunion did not make the most of a reasonable draw as he found himself behind a wall of horses at halfway, and in the circumstances he did well to get so close. But he has yet to win a race on the sand.
Chatshow confirmed recent course placings with Lilly Gee, Jinksonthehouse and Laurel Dawn, but he hung under pressure and could never get in a serious blow at the leader.
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