Wolverhampton - 3:30, 4:00, 4:30 (7 Jan 2005)
Course Description
Early observations (including my own) are that the new surface (with the exceptions of races over 5,6,7 furlongs) provides a level playing field with horses winning from a stride or two behind the leaders and from off the pace. Over shorter distances there seems to be a bias for low drawn horses. In addition as the surface is still riding deep, horses must show ability to stay the distance off a string pace
Analysis
As these are All Weather handicaps I will adopt a strategy of selecting 2 against the field in each race.
3.30 Littlewoods Bet Direct Handicap Stakes (C1)
As proven yesterday a low draw is the place to be over 5 furlongs. Therefore look no further than Quito. A star over the turf and All Weather surfaces, he is a notorious hold up horse and in his last run obtained a silver medal when noted as hitting the front too soon. With plenty of pace in the race and ideally place in stall 3 he is piloted by his favourite jockey (Andy Culhane) who returns from an injury. The win stats for jockeys returning from injury are excellent so I think the script has been written for Mr Culhane. The negatives are that he rides off top weight. 1 point win.
The big danger come froms the Butler/Hanagan horse Rydal. This horse has been recently gelded and last time out improved to come second after a 66 day layoff. He is well handicapped today and second behind Quito on speed ratings. The only negative is that he is drawn in stall 10 and with plenty of pace in the race this might be his undoing. 2 pts win
4.00 Bet Direct On Sky Active Handicap Stakes Div 1 (D2)
Again, a low draw is the place to be over 7 furlongs and in this race Rafferty is the selection based on draw position, speed and handicap ratings. The only doubt is that there is not much pace in the race however; he is been ridden by an experienced and well-respected apprentice jockey (P. Makin) and he won’t be out foxed if the race turns into a tactical battle. 1 points win
The main danger is Roman Maze from the in form Brisbourne yard. A recently winner at Wolverhampton, he has a liking for this track and based on form book comments he is likely to follow up again. 2 point win
4.30 Bet Direct On Sky Active Handicap Stakes Div 2 (D2)
Two selections in this race, both are well in on speed and handicap ratings. Mistral Sky’s recent win has been franked when the third placed horse Zoom Zoom bolted in today over 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton. After the race his trainer was ‘extremely’ bullish on the chances of Mistral Sky. However a stall position of 7 does present some problems but based on positive vibes from the camp he is not one to leave out of calculations. 2 point win
Up Tempo was 8th in his last race and it was noted in the formbook that he didn’t quite get the 1m trip. He drops back in trip today so he is guaranteed to get every yard of the 7-furlong trip; currently a prerequisite for races at Wolverhampton. 1 point win
posted by Slipperytoad @ 1/06/2005 11:13:00 pm
3 comments
News Feed
3 Comments:
3:30
Quito came a dissapointing 9th at odds of 9/4. The comments suggest that he was hampered when making a bid for the front, but in watching the race I dont think that he would have won as he was not well positioned before the final turn.
Rydal come 2nd at odds of 100/30 and goes into the notebook
Racing Post Comments
An unsatisfactory event as a number of the horses - including Quito, Middleton Grey and The Lord - were badly hampered on the turn when Dizzy In The Head lost his action and was pulled up.
Even so PRINCE TUM TUM could not do more than win as he did, scoring with something to spare on this all-weather debut. He had shown his best form last year at a mile, and can be expected to step back up in trip when he goes off to Dubai to race next month.
The winner will be joined out there by his stablemate Rydal, who had run well at Lingfield last time and confirmed his well-being with another good run. Trainer Gerard Butler felt the runner-up would possibly have won with a better draw.
4:00
What a mug! I had already backed the winner on my eariler visit to Wolverhampton and I completly ignored him is this race.
Raferty came 3rd at odds of 11/8
Roman Maze came 4th at odds of 6/1
Racing Post comments
ATLANTIC QUEST has been running well for his new trainer Karl Burke this winter and, despite tending to run about under pressure here, he came through to score well enough in the end. He should continue to pay his way at this level.
Rafferty was also trying to end a long losing run, but forcing the pace on him here may not have played to his strengths and the game was up for him a furlong out. He goes up 4lb from today, so things are not going to get any easier for him for a while.
Roman Maze was found out by the step up in class after winning an amateurs' race here last time.
Mistral Sky came 4th at odds of 9/2
Up Tempo came 7th at odds of 8/1
The combination of Loader/Ahern seems one to follow over the winter months with a 66% strike rate so far!
Racing Post Comments
David Loder has his team in cracking form, so NIGHT AIR's win on his first start since September, and his first run on the sand, came as no surprise. He was never far away, picked up well in the straight and should progress further.
Mistral Sky was racing off a career-high mark and ran creditably, but was just not good enough.
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