Sandown & Wetherby (5th Feb 2005)
During the week I have spent most of my time developing a ratings systems using factors such as trainer/jockey form, distance and going preferences etc. Based on paper trials my ratings have been relatively successful. Today the system will be used in anger however, in the words of the esteemed Nick Mordlin who states that
“Systems are like vampires … you bring them out into the daylight and they wither away and die …. ….”
Lets hope for a successful outcome!
As it is Saturday, it is ‘Price-wise Challenge’ day. The selected races and the selections from the other contestants can been found on this link
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=14&topic=1371
My analysis and selections are as follows
Sandown Course Description
An oval right handed, slightly undulating track with an uphill finish. The course presents severe test of a horses jumping ability and favours front runners who can see out the trip.
3.25 Gr3 Totescoop6 Sandown Handicap Hurdle Race (A) 2m6f
Selection: Attorney General (1pt) & Supreme Serenade (1pt)
With stats of 21% for winning favourites at Sandown and given that this is a bookmaker-sponsored event, this is not a race to be lumping on the hype horse Liberman. Yes the form is rock solid on the form of Patriarch Express but an 18 lbs raise in the weights and at odds current odds of 3/1 no thank you.
Attorney General has been consistent on his last two starts and will make every yard of the trip. Unexposed in handicaps and therefore this horse cannot be easily dismissed in comparison to other rivals.
Supreme Serenade (joint top rated with Liberman) is another unexposed type who won last time out at Kempton has the profile of an improver and can follow up again.
4.00 Agfa Diamond Handicap Steeple Chase (B) 3m110y
Selection: Lou Du Moulin Mas (1pt) & Innox (1pt)
Again another race with poor favourite stats and therefore Boy´s Hurrah, should be avoided. I liked the look of Bathwick Annie but with good ground predicted and the trainer stating that this horse will only run is there is sufficient overnight rain I am put off this selection. My logic behind the selections above is as follows
Boy´s Hurrah: Likes Sandown, front runner however predicted to be market leader so is eliminated
Lou Du Moulin Mas: 2nd on ratings, disappointing run behind Boy´s Hurrah last time out. Before that race, finished in the frame in 7 starts, unexposed in handicaps looks like he has been given another chance by stable jockey Ruby Walsh
Champagne Harry: Yet to win over fences; struggling to regain form
Mercato: Still an inexperienced novice chaser. Exposed in handicaps.
Horus: Best form at the start of the season
Maximize: Inconsistent form: which horse will turn up today, who knows? Speculative each-way shout at odds of 20/1 given Pipe/Murphy combination???
Innox: Interesting jockey booking (A P McCoy); well handicapped and noted in the form book as one that should return to winning ways soon.
Wetherby Course Description
Left handed, oval shaped track it features a long rise to the winning post. This course tends to appreciate fearless, bold jumping resolute, long striding gallopers who can stretch out over the long straights. However such animals need to be able to cope with this tracks very abrupt and tight turns. The run in is rather short, only 190 yards so it pays to be near the front at the last fence
3.05 Totesport Com Handicap Steeple Chase (B) 2m4f110y
Selection: No Bet
This race offers little appeal given the odds of the in form Mister McGoldrick. Paul Nicholls has a poor record at Wetherby and with that I am not confident in the chances of Mouseski. Royal Emperor is trying to regain his confidence after poor form in chases. Amberleigh House requires a much stiffer test in terms of distance. The rags Royal Atalza and Deep Water are running out of the handicap.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 2/05/2005 08:12:00 am
3 comments
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3 Comments:
3.25 Gr3 Totescoop6 Sandown Handicap Hurdle Race (A) 2m6f
Supreme Serenade won @ odds of 13/2
Attorney General was 4th @ odds of 7/1
Having just reviewed the race I would say that Supreme Serende was a shade lucky. She will go into the notebook as one to consider. As predicted, Liberman was out if the frame
Racings Post Comments
This was back to its normal competitiveness following last year's intercession of Baracouda, which scared off contenders worried about their handicap marks against the champion staying hurdler.
Plenty of the principals have paid heavily with the handicapper recently, but they proved the official right as the emphasis was put on stamina here thanks to the frontrunning efforts of first Meggies Gamble and then Gallery God.
SUPREME SERENADE(1) performed to type in that this big rangy mare made to throw away the race before pulling herself together. She is supremely talented but has given away a mares' final and nearly her last race at Kempton, of which her run from the second-last was almost a carbon copy here under a 12lb higher mark. She has her quirks as again she cruised up, racing widest out in the straight as most of the field moved to the stands side.
Asked to win her race going to the last, she started to hang badly right and lunged over the last, which would have finished most challengers, but she made light of it and still wanted to go right from thereon in, taking Fountain Hill to the inside rail at the finish.
She heads for the Coral Cup and must be a leading contender with a guaranteed fast pace always going to suit her.
Fountain Hill(2), conceding race fitness and experience, made an eyecatching handicap debut. He had looked progressive and a top-of-the-ground performer when last seen and did nothing to disprove that here. He chased the front-runners throughout and on this showing has a profitable spring to come.
Gallery God(3) deserves plenty of credit for his battling performance considering he covered the strong pace throughout. This Flat stayer is not overbig and surprisingly sweated up here. He was not disgraced inGrade 2 company here in between his novice wins and showed he can add some decent handicaps off his low mark which aids his cause as he is not built to carry big weights.
Attorney General(4), another switched off at the back alongside the winner, looked to get slightly rushed at his hurdles in the back straight before staying on in his usual style on this drop back from Cheltenham's stiff three miles
4.00 Agfa Diamond Handicap Steeple Chase (B) 3m110y
Lou Du Moulin Mas was 2nd @ odds of 4/1
Innox won @ odds of 9/2
All I can say is wow! I must be doing something right and this results is a boost to the confidence and the ratings process. The exacta paid £25.90 to a £1 stake. With some more results like this one might consider this type of bet in the future...
Racing Post Comments
This featured few horses were obviously in good form, and it wasn't that competitive for the money. They finished well strung out behind INNOX(1), who had not managed a single win since his novice success at Warwick three years ago, but was well treatedon some form, including a second here last February. Up there all of the way, pressing Boy's Hurrah and then in front, Innox was clearly going well approaching three out, and although he was only narrowly ahead there, he steadily forged clear. He is being aimed at the Grand National, where the extreme distance should suit him. He jumps well enough, and will have a chance of getting in the race now, as he will be re-handicapped when the weights are announced on Tuesday.
Lou du Moulin Mas(2) is having a frustrating season, and while he did nothing obviously wrong he had to settle for place money yet again.
3.05 Totesport Com Handicap Steeple Chase (B) 2m4f110y
With Mister McGoldrick a non runner, in my view the result was easy to predict.
Racing Post Comments
This wasn't a strong race for the money on offer and was rendered less competitive by the withdrawal of Mister McGoldrick. The pace was no more than ordinary and only about 2l covered the four at the last on the far side.
In the end it was an easy win for the in-form MOUSESKI(1), who travelled well and had matters under control from the fourth-last. He was about the only one to come into the race with solid recent chase form, and too much should not be read into his performance.
Royal Emperor, who ran much better when put back over hurdles last time, didn't really have a cut at his fences, and though 2m4f is short enough for him these days, he didn't shape like an imminent winner.
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