Cheltenham & Doncaster (29 Jan 2005)
Now that I have returned from my business trip normal service has resumed. As mentioned in an earlier post, I have entered the Racing Forum Pricewise Challenge (http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/cgi-bin/ikonboard/topic.cgi?forum=14&topic=1365&start=0) and this weeks races are the
Doncaster 3.25 - Skybet Chase
Cheltenham 2.05 Victor Chandler Chase
Cheltenham 3.10 Pillar Chase
Cheltenham 3.45 Ladbroke Trophy Chase
With the exception of the 3:10, these racings are bookmaker-sponsored races and with sub 20% strike rates for favourites caution is advised. Also I am trialling a new ratings method and until proven, I will limit all bets to 1 point (£2).
Doncaster Course Description
A left handed galloping circuit of 2 miles and almost flat. The fences are now quite difficult and the run in is 247 yards. The ideal track for the big, long striding galloper. The going is usually good or firm, even in mid winter
3.25 Listed Sky Bet Chase A Handicap Formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase (A) 3m
Selection: Run For Paddy & Colourful life
Run for Paddy is well handicapped and was 2nd last time out after 278 day absence. Returns to favoured distance today. Heavy going was the reason given for the poor performance of Colourful life last time out. An improving 8yo who should go well today.
Cheltenham Course Description
This course has extremely stiff fences. Left handed, there is a testing uphill run-in of 237 yards on the new course. Horses must stay every yard of the trip and previous form at Cheltenham is worthy of note.
2.05 Gr2 Victor Chandler Steeple Chase Handicap (A) 2m110y
Selection: Kadarann & Thisthatandtother
With 4 Paul Nicholls runners this race, the percentage call is to side with the choices of the two stable jockeys. Kadaran has an excellent wins to run ratio and should be winning soon. Thisthatandtother drops back to what might be his preferred distance and runs extremely well at Cheltenham
3.10 Gr2 Pillar Property Steeple Chase (A) 3m1f110y
Selection: Therealbandit
Not suited to right-handed tracks was excuse given for Therealbandits poor form last time out. Back at his favoured course, he shapes as a progressive type and should go well today.
3.45 Gr3 Ladbrokes Trophy Steeple Chase A Handicap (A) 2m5f
Selection: Whereareyouknow & Redemption
This race is not my idea of fun and therefore I have not applied a method of rating each runner in the race so the selections are based on previous form at Cheltenham, handicap and speed ratings.
Whereareyounow, clearly likes Cheltenham (2/3 wins here) and 6th behind the current market leader Le Duc last time out after 255 day absence from the track. He should improve today. Redemption was second in the same race and is another that runs well at Cheltenham
posted by Slipperytoad @ 1/29/2005 01:26:00 pm
4 comments
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4 Comments:
Run For Paddy was 3rd @ odds of 8/1
Colourful life was 1st @ odds of 9/1
Hooray for the new ratings process! A 9/1 winner (and 8/1 3rd) breaks my long loosing run and boosts confidence in my new approach.
Racing Post Comments
This wasn't the strongest renewals of this particular event, but it produced a convincing winner in COLOURFUL LIFE, who travelled well and had it won going to the second last. Surprisingly this was only his 11th run over fences, so he may improve a little more yet and he now heads for the Scottish National where the faster ground should suit him.
Run For Paddy, who has broken blood vessels in the past, confirmed the promise of his good reappearance run at Kempton and being back on a winning mark, is another who could pick up a nice race before long, particularly if he gets some decent ground.
Kadarann was 3rd @ odds of 11/1
Thisthatandtother was 2nd @ odds of 2/1
Another good performance by the ratings unfortunately, Thisthatandtother did not have enough in the tank to last the distance
Racing Post Comments
WELL CHIEF's (1) presence gave this strongest of handicaps a lop-sided look, but any lingering thoughts that he might have been flattered by his close third to Moscow Flyer in the Tingle Creek were laid firmly to rest with an outstanding handicap performance off 176 - the sort of mark chasers seldom race from these days, let alone win from.
He travelled well towards the rear under a patient ride, showing no sign of any after effects of his fall at Wetherby, and made smooth headway on the outside coming down the hill to challenge for the lead two out and then quicken a length or two clear to win driven out.
While his Arkle defeat of Kicking King had been well franked, he had a tough task at the weights on his novice form with Thisthatndtother, who emerged more or less his equal at Aintree giving 3lb, and he has clearly made great strides. One can pick holes in the form, with some of the other horses who were in the handicap past their best and his three closest pursuers racing from between 2lb and 12lb out of the handicap, but he is not really built for giving lumps of weight away, so all the more credit to him.
He looks stronger now than he did, and he is still only six, so it is far from impossible for him to turn around the Sandown form withMoscow Flyer and Azertyuiop in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, which looks the race of the Festival.
Thisthatandtother, 6lb 'wrong' yet a warm order, was finishing second in his third successive valuable handicap at Cheltenham. A mistake down thefar side had not helped in the Bonusprint, but it was his lack of pace that was his undoing over this shorter trip, as he got quite badly outpaced at the top of the hill before staying on again to have every chance at the second last. While Well Chief was always holding him, he kept on well and gave the strong impression he needs further now. The Daily Telegraph Chase is the obvious target - although he will need to improve again - and the Mildmay of Flete the alternative. He could go to Newbury in the meantime.
Kadarann was upsides the winner two out but didn't come up the hill as well as the two principals. A sound effort nevertheless.
Therealbandit was 2nd @ odds of 11/4
Racing Post Comments
Therealbandit, going well when falling four out here last year, was given a very patient ride and Timmy Murphy had still to make a move as they straightened up towards thelast two fences. However, having closed going to two out and touched down almost on terms he was did not find as much as looked likely and was put in his place surprisingly quickly.
Whereareyouknow was 9th @ odds of 7/1
Redemption was 13 @ odds of 15/2
Should have left this race alone because of lazyness I did not use my new ratings method. Mug!!
Racing Post Comments
Whereareyounow ran as he did at the last meeting, going nicely for a long way but then waving the white flag without offering much resistance. He isn't the horse he was at the moment,
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