Warts and All (23rd January 2005)

As I mentioned last week, the responsibilities of my ‘real’ job mean that I am in Japan on business, therefore I have had little time for horseracing. Upon reflection the break has done me the power of good and has given me time to reflect on my methods and plan the coming months.

With school half term in February, I am planning to take my Son away on holiday and this will limit opportunities for horse racing during the next few weeks. With the Cheltenham festival looming on the horizon, I will extend the ‘principle meeting theory’ detailed last week and I target Cheltenham as my main object in the coming weeks.

My observations from last year meeting were that the highlight of the National Hunt Season provides plenty of betting opportunities. Given the competitive racing, many of the main ‘media hyped’ contenders get overturned at attractive prices for the winner. The placepot also provides another opportunity for lucrative returns. For example, at last years meeting the placepot paid £2,381.00 to a £1 stake. The pool was a massive: £642,874.75

In preparation for this meeting, I think it is time for me to start the process of starting my own ratings to provide more structure during the selection process. In the past I have attempted this method of selection with mixed results, however now I have a little more (bitter) experience I can now see the value and the need to systematically assess the chances of each runner in the race.

A further benefit of ratings is that it will allow me to quickly translate the chances of each runner into tissue (a term used to describe the betting forecast) and obtain ‘value’. The subject of value has been widely debated and I shall not attempt to describe this term here. All I can say is that ‘value’ is the ‘holy grail’ and punters must seek it at all times. I shall use the weeks running up to Cheltenham to trial the ratings.