Kempton - 3:25 (26 Mar 2005)
1m 2f - Coral Rosebery Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Course Description
Kempton is a right-handed track and almost perfectly flat. The track favours front-runners; sharp bends and a three and a half furlong run in. In terms of the draw at 1m2f on good to soft ground low to middle or middle to high drawn horses are preferred.
Analysis
Selection: Dunaskin and Another Choice (1pt win)
If it were not for the “pricewise” challenge I would body swerve this race. An early season “20 runner that have been away from the track for a long period” flat handicap means that selecting the winner will be difficult. Add to that the vagaries of the draw and this race presents an interesting puzzle for punters
From the stats and facts perspective, course favourites have a 21% strike rate therefore the current market leader Kew Green (at 6/1) represents poor value and is eliminated from the short list.
In terms of the draw Another Choice, Jazz Scene, Top Speed (low-middle) and Secretary General, Dunaskin, Temple Place (middle to high) are the ones to consider.
Unfortunately I cannot access my usual data source for pace information to determine which horses like to race prominently (with the exception of Dunaskin).
Dunaskin tops handicap ratings and has the benefit of a recent run along with Another Choice, jazz Scene. Dunaskin, Kew Green and Another Choice top speed ratings.
So I’ll side with Dunaskin and Another Choice but without up to date pace information these are not confident choices.
posted by Slipperytoad @ 3/26/2005 08:42:00 am
1 comments
News Feed
1 Comments:
Dunaskin was placed 3rd @ 16/1
Another Choice was 13th @ 10/1
This race demonstrates the dynamic nature of horse racing in that Kew Tree was the market leader when I put pen to paper early Saturday morning and was eliminated from selection however, he drifted to 9/1 at the off. Would I have backed him if I had known this? Who knows? And Dunaskin! Why of why didn’t go each way! As predicted, the natural front runners led the dash to the line
Racing Post Comments
The traditional meandering down the Jubilee Course, with the field taking the outside line early before crossing to the stands' side which made for the usual unsatisfactory contest and looked to hand high-drawn something of an advantage.
For such a big-field handicap, very few showed with a chance, with the first three around the home bend filling three of the first five places.
KEW GREEN was the one to come from well off the pace, having got unsettled in the stalls by his neighbour lashing out, and missed the break. He has been progressive on the all-weather since coming through a spine operation and this taking if narrow win suggests he is the one to beat if making the natural next step to Newbury next month.
St Andrews easily covered the pace, and was perfectly positioned throughout behind the leader on the inside rail. He looked set for an impressive win under top weight until Kew Green took off down the midtrack after switching out for clear water into the final 2f. This was some effort, confirming his progressive profile from last season when he made up for lost time after a serious injury. The caveat is that he has shown all his best form with some give in the ground, but has opened up extra options as he saw out this longer tripwell enough.
Dunaskin also caught the eye as he could not lead as is his wont, but was staying on nicely under his highest rating yet. He remains progressive even allowing for having a sighter over hurdles recently in which he fell late on.
Dumaran, second last year, ran his usual solid race, making the most of his high draw to get the inside rail position when the race sorted itself out. While his rating is easing, he remains winless for over two years, is best on softer ground and had therun of the race here.
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